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I should have listened to topgun

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Not applicable
now I can only stare in wonder at how well this stock is performing. The gut told me to buy at around the R680 level, but laziness overcame and I never crunched the numbers. complacency sucks ladies, gents and a few others
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25 REPLIES 25
Preston
Super Contributor
What is stopping you from obtaining these shares at current level?
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Preston
Super Contributor
Now you got me interested in this share.
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Not applicable
low div & 10* PE, so potential earnings of Axis pretty much priced in, IMO. Not so sure really what the upside potential from here is, but I don't think it can be more than 10% or 15%. I am pinning my hopes on higher div yield stocks, like Metair, Kumba, Lewis and maybe some of the high yield small caps, like Rolfes
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topgun
Super Contributor
PNC's 1-year forward PE is only 6.8x at 885cps, which is still very good value considering the company's growth potential. Also look at OLG (due to report soon), VMK (after the recent sell-off) and LHG (which is cheap relative to the other pharmaceutical co's) at their current price levels. Btw, Threshold called MTA back in Jan (at much lower levels) which I also didn't bother to investigate at the time - some you win and some you lose - but you learn to trust the stock picking abilities and gut instinct of certain forumites over time which is where the value of this medium lies.
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Blik
Super Contributor
Skaap I'll buy some now at 880c odd if you promise to sell at the R680 level...LOL.
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Not applicable
Ah, short low and cover high - that would be a first. Need to see if Simon will lend me the stock though, I am good for it
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
There is no real growth in this stock going forward. It is an IT wholesaler. I firmly believe that these small IT shares are to be avoided.As a trade: at R2 this was irresistible. At R4 I was out. The same goes for MUSTEK. I wish I had held - but bah! I can see no reason to own these share long-term. Their retail kit will be murdered if WAL/MASS-MART has its way. As for their main business - wholesale - who wants to own a wholesaler of fast-moving, dollar costed technology kit anyway.
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Not applicable
Nah boet, there I would have to respectfully disagree. There is a big difference between IT stocks (which are predominantly services orientated) and computer equipment vendors, Like PNC and Datatec (my current favourite holding). The beauty about computer equipment is that it continually re-invents itself. Innovation is a guarantee. And demand continues to grow. Enterprise communications is another great industry in this respect, as there is always a new technology coming out. This is Datatec's sweet spot. Fair enough, OEM's can muscle in on their territory, but they have not succeeded to do this in the last 20 years, and the distribution model has stood the test of time, why should now be any different?
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
There is no future in IT wholesale. It is moving online. Wholesalers wind up stuck with piles of outdated junk and when the Rand blows out - they get savaged. I had an IT distibution company. Been there and done that. Their margins are pathetic. Vast stock movement / tiny profit = losses. MUSTEK and PINNCALE are doing well due to the strong Rand and - most importantly - the fact that all of their competition went bust over the last 5 years. Due largley to the rate of change of technology. The line between retail and wholesale is being destroyed by the internet. These are NOT good investments! Their model is for the palaeontolgists!They are heading for extinction! But IMO.
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
The service companies are far more interesting. They are not really the kind of thing I like - but I can assure you that there will always be a need for service. DATATEC, in her current incarnation, turns over R30 BILLION and makes R290 Million. That's awful.
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Not applicable
can't argue with that - perhaps I didn't choose the best case study (DTC). My wording should have read - my current favourite in the sector. My liking for DTC is because of their market share in Brazil, which I really think has got a lot of potential still to come. But, having been in the IT sector myself in the past, I have never been a fan of investments in it.
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
DATATEC has also been pushing into the service sector for some years now (including their Brazilian acquisition - still minly a CISCO wholesaler though.) If she can get this right she will begin to expand her margins. If that is your reason for holding her, then fair enough. BUT as a CISCO wholesaler - rather buy CISCO on 8x odd.
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
Another thing that worries me about PNC inparticular is that some of the local analysts keep on punting this smallcap. They talk it up week after week. If you are onto such a good thing (as an investment house,) surely you keep schtum. Well at least until you have finished accumulating your position .Are they talking up their own book? Not that I would, for one minute, suggest that members of such a fine and noble profession would do this!
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richardw
Super Contributor
I think the online movement will hurt retailers, if anybody. Less so the wholesalers because someone has to buffer the stock locally to respond < 24h. Buying a Dell machine from overseas is a nightmare. Mustek et al can just ramp up their online stores, providing a wider range without the retail front. Also some have government contracts which helps a lot. Obviously stock management is a big issue because some of the items age very quickly and if you want to brand something you need to order enough of them to make it worthwhile. But online ordering and delivery would make me worry more about Incredible Connection, if anybody.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
of course they talking up their own book .. what else are they doing on the media .. and what are most people doing here and on every other public platform ..
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
the question that is asked very seldom is if they are alocating new money to the position ..
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
an I have a book and it needs to be talked .. everybody pleasa go buy ALSI Sep futures .. buy hundreds, no thousands .. I got habits ..
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
EXACTLY! The point is - they should reveal this upfront - together with the extent of their holding, their target price, whether they are accumulating or selling into the froth they are creating. Those on this forum don't get to peddle their opinions on national TV - which lends a level of confidence. The FAIS ACT applies to this.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
sure .. targets are a myth and quanties less important .. but I agree on disclosure .. that said viewers are lazy .. my entire portfolio is published online, just seldom viewed .. they just want hot tips ..
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