The U.S. markets are puffing up like a blowfish, waved on by the most crooked of them all using once-off events as if they're proof of their invulnerability. We're all following them up. What could possibly go wrong, you ask? Me, sold shorts & back in money markets from yesterday. Fricken interest rate, and then the government wants to tax you on top of that.
what you are smelling is burning money...yours...we have a classice W bottom on the SA futures and need to take out the mid point highs before we can call this a bull. We have a huge reverse head and shoulders pending. that would see us get to a 50% retrace from our markets highs. We have copper breaking its down trend last night. And of course we have the rand showing remarkable strength. Trade the facts.That said we are up against the down trend on both the DOW and the FTSE so that makes todays price action serriously important as a weekly close above these trends will be seen as very significant.
There's that view, and there's this view: "One thing is for certain: the longer the divergence between real volume trading/liquidity and absolute market changes persists, the more memorable the ensuing market liquidity event will be. At the end of the day, despite the pronouncements by the administration and more and more sell-side analysts that the market is merely chasing the rebound in fundamentals in what has all of a sudden become a V-shaped recovery, the "rally" could simply be explained by technical factor driven capital-liquidity aberrations, which will continue at most for mere weeks if not days." http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/incredibly-shrinking-market-liquidity.html
head and shoulders on the TOP is now a DELUXXX triple header... and the volume... now what is that doing? Yes it is hard to short a market so buy side biased... the question is how much more biased can it get? Anyway who wants to sell into a weak market....
The price was the truth around 2007 as well. Sooner or later it catches on, despite having a lot of wiggle-room in between. John - not sure what your window is - IIRC intraday. I can't hope to think of what it'll do in the super-short term - that's like predicting where the next breeze will come from. But I'm sure (or biased) that it'll get colder as we heading into Winter.
no, the price is only ever the truth that exists in the market .. do price and fundamentals converge, well maybe - but then again everybody has a different fundamental view .. hence the truth can only be price as everything else is view 9bias0 .. relating it to weather indicates the problem .. you think about the market the same way you think about life .. an they are way way different in more ways then most people think ..
Agreed - the complexity makes the market. Anyway, I'm a dullard for believing I know where it might go ;) I actually have few of my own thoughts, just trying to read those who hopefully see through the noise, trying to balance listening to my bias and informing it from (hopefully) better informed opinions. What I think is interesting (and mentioned in that article) is that quant hedge funds have largely lost money in this rally. Out of 80 that were canvassed, 1 is up. For every possible position, there are exceptionally smart people who subscribe to it.