Visit our COVID-19 site for latest information regarding how we can support you. For up to date information about the pandemic visit www.sacoronavirus.co.za.

bs-regular
bs-extra-light
bs-light
bs-light
bs-cond-light-webfont
bs-medium
bs-bold
bs-black

Community


Share knowledge. Ask questions. Find answers.

Online Share Trading

Engage and learn about markets and trading online

I thought of another fun thing for us on the forum

Reply
Highlighted
Super Contributor
If we all could submit a paragraph about what we think would happen in 2011 with the markets, where we see them headed and so on we could put this on a website and see who is the closest when next year this time comes along... who likes this idea? Maybe part of the game is to give an estimated value for DJIA, ALSH...
0 Kudos
12 REPLIES 12
Highlighted
Not applicable
Index volatility will be wild.Due to all of that Quantitative Easing 2.0 and 3.0 and 4.0,etc.Huge Jumps will develop vs Huge downs.It will be a highly fluid situation as Central Bankers COLLECTIVELY print to devalue for trade-export purposes.And remember, you're in Rand-Land...the wildest of them all....Ridem Cowboy !2011.
0 Kudos
Highlighted
Super Contributor
the thing is nobody knows, so whats intersting is not who is right and who is wrong but rather what the diffrent perspectives are or perhaps most NB is if there are mostly the same!
0 Kudos
Highlighted
Super Contributor
0 Kudos
Highlighted
Not applicable
Dudes...just watch the Zim Industrial Index when Robber Mugabe went wacko! and printed ...It was an exponential chart.The real economy died and Stocks went True North.So yeah...Logic has nothing to do with any of it.It's just money supply PUMP! and WHERE will it go.That's all.I suppose their Bond Mkt wasn't too functional(heh)..don't have a chart on that.
0 Kudos
Highlighted
Super Contributor
big difference the world has never accounted in zim dollars, and in that leis the rub... but it does support comms going serriously north.
0 Kudos
Highlighted
Not applicable
A reasonably strong rand (6:50 - 7 - $1); Rising food commodity prices, slight easing of Mineral commodity prices, Corporate earnings across the board under pressure causing those itchy emotional "investors" to over sell & over buy stocks - so be awake for bargains; Increasing ground level unrest & discontentment post local election promises & again lack of delivery; A major shift in Alliance powerblocks - either Cosatu/SACP exets its true power or Vavi is absorbed by the ANC elite and redeployed to Limpopo/ North West / Eastern Cape. So as more things change, more will remain constant. Personal Tragedies will continue to gain attention of the newspapaers in the absence of true news while we all wait for teh market to give us some direction - so let the words of SPB echo in yr ears this next year - TRADE THE PRICE, ALL THE REST IS STATIC.... Now I am off to wander through our empty shopping malls getting my annual Boney M fix :)
0 Kudos
Highlighted
Valued Contributor
2011, green for local market .. probably +10-15% .. rand to hit 6.50 ..
0 Kudos
Highlighted
Regular Contributor
2011 lots of little hills and dips but will finish about 3% up leaving most investors wondering why they did not just put there money in bonds or the bank
0 Kudos
Highlighted
Regular Contributor
Province will win the Currie Cup.....pleeaase.....
0 Kudos
Highlighted
Not applicable
Credit extension numbers will slowly increase and Banks will be the big winners.
0 Kudos
Highlighted
Super Contributor
OK - Here is a contribution (for what its worth)... The real Case-Shiller national index is approaching a bottom. This indicator is a measure of the real condition of the US banking system asset base. US Bank failures will continue until this indicator shows an upward trend for about a year or two. A reputed forward indicator for global trade was the Baltic Dry Index and Dry Ships (DRYS) which have never recovered since the bottom of the collapse over 2 years ago. However, the RSI on DRYS has been positive over the last 6 months and a +20% price gain occurred in November. The Euro pessimism is diverting attention from the biggest elephant, which is the US debt and upcoming bond crisis. Attention must inevitably revert to this. When the China-Russia-Euro connection becomes mainstream the attention will turn and the dollar will revert to relative weakening. Bail-outs are European equivalent of QE. Massive QE will debase. Commodity based economies will see strong currencies relative to QE affected currencies. Sustained low interest rates in major economies will cause commodity and property prices to trend higher which will alleviate deflation fears. Interest rates will probably need to commence eventually serious upward adjustments during 2011 to address this prospective spectre of QE and recovery driven inflation. Smoke and mirrors will continue be the daily media and politico fodder. Objective overview will remain elusive and largely irrelevant to short-term market action. Global warming effects will remain bullish and early signs of the next ice age will appear. The CIA will place South Africa in the corrupt State category.
0 Kudos
Highlighted
Super Contributor
I'm positioned for the banks to gain, got some shares in a few banks at very good levels 2 years ago, some decent gains already but when times really go well i agree that these will be good.
0 Kudos