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Is it fair to say ....

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Frequent Contributor
Is it fair to say that you have to be an absolute idiot to not make money in a bull market?
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18 REPLIES 18
Valued Contributor
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Not applicable
a more interesting and relevant question would be the flip side of that question...do you need to be an absolute idiot to lose money in a bear market...same answer...
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Frequent Contributor
I disagree there, in a bear market if you do not buy/sell at the correct time the whole market can shift against you at best you loose your stop loss. In a bull market the oerall trend is up so yes you have to be a moron to loose money. In a bear market one needs a finer understanding of the market movements. In my opinion.
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Super Contributor
It all comes back down to how us humans are brought up... That things need to be perfect and right all the time. So I guess in a bear market people would rather get thrills trying to pick bottoms than actually make a profit by shorting the raliies. How many times did you here that october was the bottom we saw...?
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Super Contributor
Salv...Last year the JSE had one of its biggest moves in history...How huch of idiot do you have to be to not see that the trend is down and to be a part of it...All you have to do is sell...A bear market is an easier market to make money in then a bull as the moves are swifter, steeper and happen with less hesitation...The bull is full of counter trend moves short sharp corrections. truth is "The Trend be your friend at except were it bends because that be the end."
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Frequent Contributor
O ok i see were you comming from, i havnt started with shorting yet, dont understand warrents well enough to get involved there, so my statemnt was within my limited scope. But i see what you guys are saying now. Bear market is just as easy as a bull market just do the opposite of what you do in a bull market. Makes sense.
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Valued Contributor
the issue is peoples inability to sit out the bear market and wait .. (I am not referign to traders here - rather investors) ..
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Super Contributor
No... the issue is that they sit to long...so they do not sell when the trend breaks..then they sit and they sit and they sit...and eventually they sell...thats what we are heading toward now..the retail capitulation phase..It would be easy for most investors to wait out a bear..if they had sold near the top.
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Valued Contributor
so the problem is the selling, not the sitting ??
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Super Contributor
Lets say at the top you worth 100 million...if you sold you are still worth 100 million so you think yourself very very clever..to buy now and to see your wealth start to decline..would cost you the pycological high ground you currently employ so you continue to sit..easy...but if you are now worth 30 million or less not easy to sit not easy to buy not easy to do anything rationally ... so mistakes happen on selling buying and non action.
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Not applicable
Sit the bear market out, you say. Well, I'm an investor, retired and need growth and income. So I buy our bluest chip, so we were told - AGL. 5 years ago I bought at 170 and sat it out. Nice dividends and very good growth - up to R540 or so. The market turns. All the professionals say don't panic - hang on - at least you're income is secure. Now they PASS the dividend. Not cut, passed. Zero income and possible 18 months before dividends are paid again. After 5 years a capital loss and no income. I've got to sell and realise the loss because I need the income.
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Super Contributor
to continue...it is easy for the 100 million oke to buy near the bottom on the way to recovery as he is not putting himself and his high ground at risk...Hence the Idea of "smart money"..As they carry into the market the newly aquired self importance that they were able to read, outsmart and out prosper the market...but in truth all they did was sell and wait..
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Not applicable
What I simply can not understand is that the talking heads just sweep this bear market under a 'Paper Loss' carpet. If this all is just a paper loss, then why did companies like Lehman Brothers close their doors? Its afterall, according to the financial experts, just a 'Paper Loss'. Yes, it's a paper loss, them green papers you need to pay your bills.
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Super Contributor
My point exactly...I am sorry to hear that.
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Frequent Contributor
In my opinion you are not and cannot be a buy and hold investor if you are needing the dividend and growth income to live off. To me that is just too scary a scenario to contemplate. Especially when the company whose shares you own are buying mines at the top of a resource boom.
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Regular Contributor
I agree with NJ. The "experts" claim that no-one has ever made a loss when holding for 20 years and longer. The question is: who can afford to hold at a loss, for 19 years. Who is stupid enough to do that.
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Not applicable
If you are a Bull in a bear market all you have to do is rotate your chart 180* then you'll be fine
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Super Contributor
The last time we had a market potentially like this, nobody made a profit for 20 years. Buying just before '29, you would have had to wait until the 50's. Buying now, you're much more likely to be absolutely sure of a profit in 20 years' time. But a year ago? Not so much.
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