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Is the end of the fall close?

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Contributor
This share has been in the decline since November last year. With indicators stabilising it looks like the decline could be coming to an end. any views?
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Sentula has high debt levels, but then that is not abnormal for this company, because borrowing for their contract operations has always been a part of their business model. Now with the sale of hteir Kroonfontein mine, that will reduce quite a chunk of debt and revert them back to the operating model that they had before their demise. That model was quite profitable, but I think that institutions are probably too afraid right now to enter into highly geared companies, but htis is just IMO
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Super Contributor
Following the Nov'09 rights offer and the Koornfontein colliery sale, net debt will decline to R610m - gearing ratio of 24.7% on a tangible asset basis. The R500m rights issue was 90% oversubscribed by various institutional shareholders incl. the PIC, Coronation, Stanlib and Investec Asset Mngt.
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Ja that's right, about my calculation as well. Which places TNAV at around 375cps - so it is trading well below NAV at the moment. I guess the only risk to way up is the business model, which I personally think is pretty sound
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Contributor
So sentiment is keeping the share price subdued. They've done well in cleaning their act esp the debt gearing. I must check the fundamentals. I've placed an alert at 300c as I believe it will be at this point that the bull will be confirmed
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Super Contributor
The chart looks interesting.I think it is gearing up (no pun intended) for a break out of a symmetrical triangle.This could take it out of its bear trend which could lead to take-off.Some might prefer to wait for the breakout,but I think it's close.omo
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Super Contributor
I agree. I have bought some of these shares initially based on the fundamentals and under valuation. Concur that technically a breakout looks imminent. Maybe it will add some excitement to a rather lacklustre market.
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Contributor
Hey guys I'm also seeing the same thing. At what level do you think the breakout will be confirmed. My tech analysis says 300c?
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Super Contributor
The larger symmetrical triangle is getting squeezed.Tomorrow I see support at 280 and resistance at 290 (which happened to be the low and high today).I see 290 as the resistance of the bear trend since its high on 11 June 2009,so I would like to see a close above that.
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Contributor
Yes at 290 it would be an indication but not an absolute one. I might go in in bits somewhere between 290 - 299. At 300 I'm going 100%. Note momentum is still falling!
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Super Contributor
According to the latest circular, the Koornfontein disposal will lift pro-forma tangible nav to 423cps, a 48% premium to the current trading price.
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Contributor
Thanks TopGun! I checked and it looks like it's gona take a while for the price to breach the 290 mark. Will keep checking!
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Super Contributor
Please fasten your seat belts,we will be taking off shortly.
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Contributor
true Russ de 290 level is being tested now. closed at 289 yesterday. we need a close that's at least 291. then we'll start buckling...
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Super Contributor
Looks like the breakout at last,and on decent volume.About time.
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