Is the recession really over?

[theyoungster]

is the recent rally a start of the new bull rally or is there worse to come?? just the number of businesses i see closing down in cape town when i took a drive the other day, number of retrenchments keep hearing about its a bit hard to believe that we going to recover so soon, i trade the price so have a neutral opinion, who thinks this recent rally is the eye of the storm??

[SimonPB]

technically we are still in recession .. we need a positive GDP number to be out an this quarter may be positive, but it could go either way .. thing is the market cares ntohing for today, it is looking 12-18 months down the line .. so look to the economy nlate 2010 early 2011 .. we will see postive GDP before then, but we may also be seeing a double dip, in other words we get out of recession for a quarter or three, then slip back down .. but as you say, as a trader this is all meaningless, tis just about price .. things are going up or down, if up we buy, if down we sell ..

[HateGauteng]

I suspect a massive head and shoulders forming on the dow jones since about 1999. The left shoulder and head has formed and we're in the right shoulder at the moment. If this turns out to be a head and shoulders pattern, then another huge downside is still to come.

[divz]

HG you may be right i dont know but if you trading daily/weekly/monthly imo you cannot use a h&S formation going back 10 years as a basis to make a decision to buy/sell shares over short term unless your periods are much longer. if it took 10 years to get to the right shoulder how long is it going to take to see the neckline being broken 1 to 2 years? definitely shouldnt be this mnth or am i wrong.

[HateGauteng]

I used the daily chart over that period. This is my long term doomsday scenario. I don't use it for day to day trading but it's my indicator for the primary trend. In the short term things look bullish but I'm on the lookout for the downtrend. I also suspect double tops forming for the FTSE, DAX and CAC during this period. So it doesn't look like we're out of the recession yet.

[TOPIX]

The market cannot avoid instability because current share prices are based not on an actual improvement in the economy but on expectations of a relatively steep recovery in company earnings next year. Aah, so all this hype is based on speculation, expectations, rumours, etc, etc. Oh well, lets ride it out, there will be another report tomorrow that will swing all reality in the other direction.

[GarethJ]

I guess the affect of the econimic downturn is really to apply Darwin to businesses. Many weak one's are not making it, but the one's who survive will be fitter when the conditions improve? Just need to make sure you don't buy the Dodo...

[richardw]

I suspect the market sees good news 18 months in advance, but waits for the bad news to run it over repeatedly before it sees anything :)

[#9]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32668728