-175k is priced, what the FX market is also saying as it ranges tightly at the moment. -200k, and it's implication, is not yet priced in. DOW futures also just marking time. Everything out there is just coiled up like a spring.
yep, that's the consensus of journalists and analysts. In both the FX markets where I trade the general consensus among traders is -175k with -200k being confirmation that the US is in big trouble and the Eurozone in even deeper trouble. -175k will cause a rally in EURUSD and markets while -200k or worse will send EURUSD back to 1.25 and the markets down. Between -180k and -195k and the markets will go sideways. OMO but let's see if FX traders know better than journo's and analysts?
Just look at the graph of EUR-USD. Longer term. It's bottoming out. The probability of further declines in the market as a whole is now `reduced'. Your bets have to be more bullish in nature than anything else. Don't forget to buy me a turkey on Thanksgiving day if u make money.
One more thing.when the market was going down it was called a `Slow Down'. Recently everyone is preparing for a loooong `Recession'. One more signal that this will be a Bear market rally. When the complacency sets in u got your VIX in front of u and everyone start calling Obama the miracle president u can be dead sure it will go down.
Wiz? I don't want to take any kind of position right now, will wait for the data and trade the whips. Here's an interesting dilemma: If US NFP is -200k or worse, then it pretty much confirms what the market already knows. However, such a number also seals a rate cut to 0.5% for the Fed in Dec and that could really set the cat among the doves (sic). Basically it would put the choice as  do you go long the USD because Europe is probably in worse shape than the US right now? or  do you go short the USD to price in the coming rate cut when the Eurozone rates are much higher? The problem here is that Trichet, the bonehead, should have cut long ago. The way I see this panning out in this scenario is a hard rally to the 1.30 level for EURUSD and then a swing back to current levels or even down to the 1.25's. The feel in the FX market is that the ECB is way behind the curve and that Trichet and his dodderers are not telling the whole truth. That alone could cancel out any strength the EUR has