Visit our COVID-19 site for latest information regarding how we can support you. For up to date information about the pandemic visit www.sacoronavirus.co.za.

bs-regular
bs-extra-light
bs-light
bs-light
bs-cond-light-webfont
bs-medium
bs-bold
bs-black

Community


Share knowledge. Ask questions. Find answers.

Online Share Trading

Engage and learn about markets and trading online

Jobs Report 'Is Going to Be Pretty Ugly

Reply
asylum
Super Contributor
I think one needs to watch this one this afternoon expectations are looking gloomy. Maybe a nice short position presenting itself for this afternoon. omo
0 Kudos
15 REPLIES 15
Wizard
Super Contributor
Be careful it might have been priced in last night already
0 Kudos
_nova
Super Contributor
It's the only thing that matters today. Estimate is -175k (over previous -159k) but a reading of -200k... "gaan die eend agterstevoorom deur die dam ruk"
0 Kudos
_nova
Super Contributor
-175k is priced, what the FX market is also saying as it ranges tightly at the moment. -200k, and it's implication, is not yet priced in. DOW futures also just marking time. Everything out there is just coiled up like a spring.
0 Kudos
Wizard
Super Contributor
0 Kudos
_nova
Super Contributor
yep, that's the consensus of journalists and analysts. In both the FX markets where I trade the general consensus among traders is -175k with -200k being confirmation that the US is in big trouble and the Eurozone in even deeper trouble. -175k will cause a rally in EURUSD and markets while -200k or worse will send EURUSD back to 1.25 and the markets down. Between -180k and -195k and the markets will go sideways. OMO but let's see if FX traders know better than journo's and analysts?
0 Kudos
Wizard
Super Contributor
Just look at the graph of EUR-USD. Longer term. It's bottoming out. The probability of further declines in the market as a whole is now `reduced'. Your bets have to be more bullish in nature than anything else. Don't forget to buy me a turkey on Thanksgiving day if u make money.
0 Kudos
Wizard
Super Contributor
One more thing.when the market was going down it was called a `Slow Down'. Recently everyone is preparing for a loooong `Recession'. One more signal that this will be a Bear market rally. When the complacency sets in u got your VIX in front of u and everyone start calling Obama the miracle president u can be dead sure it will go down.
0 Kudos
_nova
Super Contributor
Wiz? I don't want to take any kind of position right now, will wait for the data and trade the whips. Here's an interesting dilemma: If US NFP is -200k or worse, then it pretty much confirms what the market already knows. However, such a number also seals a rate cut to 0.5% for the Fed in Dec and that could really set the cat among the doves (sic). Basically it would put the choice as [1] do you go long the USD because Europe is probably in worse shape than the US right now? or [2] do you go short the USD to price in the coming rate cut when the Eurozone rates are much higher? The problem here is that Trichet, the bonehead, should have cut long ago. The way I see this panning out in this scenario is a hard rally to the 1.30 level for EURUSD and then a swing back to current levels or even down to the 1.25's. The feel in the FX market is that the ECB is way behind the curve and that Trichet and his dodderers are not telling the whole truth. That alone could cancel out any strength the EUR has
0 Kudos
Trying
Contributor
What time is the announcement - our time ?
0 Kudos
SimonPB
Valued Contributor
trader I spoke to in Chicago said the consensus on the street is for 200k, but on the option trading floor in Chicago it is 250k.
0 Kudos
john_1
Super Contributor
If everybody is exepecting the market to drop...R10 says it goes up on the news.
0 Kudos
asylum
Super Contributor
hey John sure you can spare it.
0 Kudos
Fredsed
Super Contributor
S&P due to close below 840, could be today. This would confirm further downside on major indices and no bottom formation here. Looks like 12 noon EST = 7 pm local.
0 Kudos
Jobarshares
Contributor
As far as I know, the time of the announcement is 13H30 GMT, which should be 15h30 our time.
0 Kudos
john_1
Super Contributor
I told you the us would open up!
0 Kudos