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John...

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Not applicable
You previously mentioned the difference between where the cash and futures market closes on the alsi, how much of today's gap close has to do with that? I guess this needs a little more investigation but I've been watching this happen regularly now. If the alsi move higher or lower than the cash market close after 17:00 the we seem to at least make an attempt at closing the difference in the morning. Maybe this is the real tell if we gonna get a gap (at least partial)?
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8 REPLIES 8
SimonPB
Valued Contributor
futures should always be above the cash market due to interest (remember futures are future dated transactions so have cost of money or interest in them).
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john_1
Super Contributor
Basically the MTM price for futures is arround the 5.05pm price..if we rally hard in that last half hour that can be a long way from the closing price..
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Not applicable
Yes, but the analysis I've done, since you mentioned it, tells me that it is only significant if the futures rally/fall after 17:00 to below the high/low for that day. Comments?
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Not applicable
... sorry ... that's above/below the high/low of the day
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cfm
Super Contributor
That is probably because the market then takes it direction from the DOW and estimates (guess) what will happen.
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john_1
Super Contributor
Wena sorry been out most the day..the gap close is less of function of MTM price vs closing price..but rather a funtion of how the market prices the overnight news and reacts to that news like yesterday...massive gap down and there was very little bulish capitulation that then puts uncertanty into the shorts and thats the energy...the relavence of the closing vs MTM is more a question of were to exit the gap...say we gap down on monday...do you exit your long(gap trade) on the the closing price of 17320 or the cash close which is way above that..Ie what is the chance of a revesal before the cash close!
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Not applicable
nee man John no praat jy k a k...te diep in die bottel gekyk?....quite simply the futures market (like the cash market) is trying to predict the future....(thats not why its called a futures market BTW)....when the cash market closes the futures market continues to predict the future based on a present reality thats all....
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John...ah ...i see now u got it all the wrong way round....thats why u are not making any sense....we will gap up on Monday not down.....what happened today is that the dow 61.8% retracement of the massive rally yesterday occured during the period between the close of the cash market and the futures market...the futures market got spooked by the retracement .....nothing else
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