Lazy short entry

[saash]

First it must cross over, then there must be a close above the 15, then there must be a green after that at 4.30.
Lots of news coming out this afternoon - so trade carefully. Think with the system, not with your eyes.

[earlyret]

and if its Alsi Futures on DWT for eg.

[#3]

Right, long entry tomorrow if green for those not on current shorts?

[SimonPB]

no, becoz 30 below 60 .. so primary trend still down ..

[#5]

Wrong Mr Brown, if you click the right arrow at the top left of the TOPI chart you can zoom right in. Graph only shows 2nd of March's price, but there 30&60 were within 1 pixel of one another. So if today's close get added, it will be above, and tomorrow we get lift-off if still green.

[SimonPB]

OK so you making assumptions .. an on Bloomberg both the 30 and 60 EMA closed spot on 24309.1816 .. no idea what to o then, never seen that before, spose in the purest sense, no cross ?? but also entry is not spot on .. first primary trend needs to be in your favour .. then the day after the EOD price crosses 15 EMA you have the trigger .. in this case the 15 EMA cross happened before the primary was up ..

[grommet]

stoplosses should be hit by now ?

[#8]

Yesterday's price now reflects as I am looking at the OST TOPI chart. I'm zoomed into 27 Jan to 3 Mar (single right arrow top-left), 30 is now above 60, so green this afternoon means long. Or are you telling me the OST TOPI chart is not correct and I should rather be using Bloomberg, Simon?

[SimonPB]

depending on your gearing .. but most likely ..

[earlyret]

If I'm trading ALSI Futures at R16500 a contract, is it 20% of that amount, R3300, ie 330 pts(on DWT)??

[SimonPB]

short answer is yes .. long answer is that me thinks the huge gearing breaks the system .. it seems to work better with lower gearing of around 5x ..

[earlyret]

Thanx. Will just have to adjust it accordingly

[saash]

On all my TOPI charts the 30 is still way below the 60 and no signals for a positive trend on Simon's system.
That said - the reverse H&S is either a massive opportunity or threat today - depends which way you are trading and if it breaks or resists at the neck-line.

[john_1]

agree with simon.. Large gearing puts stops in play early but it also put you at dreak even early so it can means been taken out for zero gain when lower gearing keeps you in trade. based on experience of just 2 trades..

[saash]

This is where a secondary system over-laid on Simon's system can be quite beneficial and entertaining. See - Simon's short is triggered and confirmed - so the direction for the time being is short - if you like geared products, choose a system that you find works for your geared products - like your 5min system - wait for triggers and trade them on shorts. Trade gap closes to the short side. etc. Well - I'm just playing with this theory at the moment.

[SimonPB]

ya, an the point is different systems workign side by side ..

[HateGauteng]

Okaaay. . . I've been using the SLS a bit but wondering if I'm doing the correct thing. I usually use the STX40 charts but I hear people using the TOPI charts. Both give different figures. On the STX40 chart the trigger and confirmation happened last week thurs and friday respectivly but on monday the price was green and closed above the 15ema. This would have cancelled the short trigger. On the TOPI chart Monday's close seemed to be below the 15ema. This gets even more confusing when using the zoom arrows on OST charts. The MAs seem to shift when using these arrows. I just use the one year chart and stick my nose into the screen to try to make things out. . . Tired of cleaning snot marks of the screen!!!

[NJ_1]

Agreed on the issue with using different base values - it can clearly be a problem when the values are close to each other. However, the close above the 15 EMA on Monday should not have cancelled the trigger, if the 16:30 confirmation had already been met. In fact, once the trade is entered, the EMA is never considered again in any decisions for that trade.

[saash]

I've been watching his system for ages, and I think its pretty good. I still think though the success rate would increase if the confirmation signal would have to be BELOW the trigger day's close (not just green at 4.30) .... omo
Still, its a pretty good system, and the 20% stop prevents any further issues caused by rallies of the nature of this one. It's just not simple - so I vote in favour of a "Simon Says" blog page - to eliminate any further issues - lol.

[HateGauteng]

Here's a copy and paste of the rules that I got off the forum from a few people. (CPS you were one of them if I'm not correct.) *short trading trigger *30 day ema below 60 day ema for primary direction *close below 15 day ema *red next day by 16h30 *if still below 15 day ema & green next day trigger still active & wait for red 16h30 next day *if moving above 15 day ema trigger cancelled *20% trailing stop until breakeven then a higher high out 2. Short trade: a. Trigger: i. The price crosses the 15 day EMA from above. ii. The 15 day EMA is below the 30 day EMA. iii. The 30 day EMA is below the 60 day EMA. b. Confirmation: The price, at 16:30, is lower than the previous day's close. c. Conditions: i. If the next day the price is below its 15 day EMA but above the previous day's close, the trigger is still active. Wait for the price to be below its previous day's close at 16:30 the following day. ii. If the price moved above its 15 day EMA, the trigger is cancelled. iii. If the 30 day EMA is lower than the 60 day EMA, the primary trend is bearish. d. Stop loss and exit: i. Until you reach breakeven, use a 20% trailing stop. ii. Thereafter, a higher high signals your exit.