Local is now lekker!!!!!!

[barry_1]

During the trying times of the last couple of days,as a result of overseas investors having trouble in their own markets and therefore being less confident to trade the overseas markets.Therefore i've found that shares that produce services and goods for local markets do better than Rand hedges in the past in these circumstances.This morning i've been adding to the three that come up to their finals round Dec,Jan.Do your own research before u buy.The three that i hold are ARL,JDG and PPC.

[#2]

Barry, we also like jdg - buying on dips below 60, with an eye on Nov 5.

[#3]

Hi Barry/Gravy. Forgive me if this question shows my ignorance (of which there is plenty), but why are you guys so positive about JD Group? I'm not much of a follower of technicals, but these don't deem to indicate a strong upward break and their last trading statement predicted lower profits and earnings. Is it just the 'local is lekker' aspect that you mentioned, or is there more upside potential to this share than I am seeing?

[JohnnyCash]

More a case of a seemingly bargain today may be expensive tomorrow! Everything works in trends so it is highly unlikely that the decrease in earnings JD warned about will be a once off event! If it is, great! but we also thought 6 months ago that they would not be impacted by rates that much and look see! Nope, this reduction in earnings will be followed by another 1 or 2 and that will change the rating of the share completely.
Do a rough calc, if their earning dropped by 50% (or just use their 30% they warned about) in total over the next 2 to 3 years and the share price remain at these levels, it will double their PE and 1/2 their dividend yield. Cheap? Nope.
Guess we'll have to wait to see when they announce a cut in dividends, to see whats cheap. omo and all that....

[dbm]

The JD Group is on a low PE at the moment. I am taking out Futures on this share. I may be wrong but its a punt and I do'nt think it will break the bank if it does work out.

[saash]

The share is slightly over-sold IMO. Anticipated impact of Credit Act and Economy slow down slightly exagerated. Results announcement implies that the performance is bad, yes - just not as bad as the sell-off of since May has suggested. OMO

[barry_1]

Valid points are made by Wardog and Johnny Cash,how ever i took all that into consideration,i tend to agree with Saash on his observations.Then there is the poor publlicity it received at the hands of Carte Blance which has really pushed the share too low.I think its worth holding for the div.Remember i don't hold it long after its LDT date,so what happens in the future really does not concern me.Notice that each low is higher than the last one and that its forming a wedge which usually means an upward break when a share nears its pay date.OMO

[Brazen]

Yip. I'm with Saash and Barry. I'm hoping the bad news is overdone - afterall they are not making a loss only 25% less profit. Also, this is probably laughably simplistic, but I figure a 25% loss in profits doesn't warrant a 50% sell off of the share.

[#9]

..2c..There's inherant risk in bottom-calling (as the dude in black pj's points out). Still, we be using STA's, and a low exposure in relation to our overall stash#ergo, a higher risk profile is acceptable. Also, ass-grabbing on support means low overall-risk - a break below the line and we exit with a small loss.

[JohnnyCash]

Right back at ye. Everyone for themselves. Im just not keen on the word "hope" in your statement. There's no telling if this is their first, last and only drop in profit to be experienced. As I said it is seldom the case that it occurs only in one period, only to correct itself the very next period. AND from a valution point of view, dropping 25% on your near term earnings affects all future earnings, since your base changed!
In TA terms, why would u want to ride the share through its bottoming formation if you can pick it up on its way out of that formation? Just asking?
As for Barry, he buys on a different basis than bottom pickers & buying now may well work for him. I will also buy, but only sometime in the future when the time is right....

[Brazen]

Everything you say is correct. Now go sit in the corner and bang your head against the wall 102 times for argueing with the Oracle.

[JohnnyCash]

Sh@t that was scary, Ive just stopped banging my head 102 against the nearest wall any could unnerstand why, NOw I read this! Shame on u, for misusing ur powers when there are still many plonkys, pinkeys, piklets, winnies out there calling for your help!!!

[JohnnyCash]

Had a look at the chart and jeez that 60-level better hold! Last few weeks it looks like JDG was trying to make the 60-level the resistance level. Given todays strong move to almost 61 will cause a sigh of relief! Im not trading JD at all but would buy it above 60 and short below 60. Based on nothing other than the chart

[JohnnyCash]

My absolute last reply, promise!!! Volume spikes over recent weeks appear to be mostly on UP days, implying a lot of selling-the-rallies still being in place!

[saash]

Failing 60, the 58 level seems to be quite sound. Also, the General Retail index has not been making new lows and is holding quite a nice support over the last few weeks. Aren't there some key economic statistics being released on Wednesday?

[Brazen]

BANG. BANG. BANG. BANG. BANG. BANB. BANG. BANG. BANG. BANG. BANG. BANG. BANG. BANG. BABANG. BANG. BANG. BANG. BANG.NG. BANG. BANG. BANG. BANG. BANG.

[john_1]

2 missfires in that gun, I would watch out if I were you.

[Brazen]

It's just Johnny hitting his head against the wall - those are times when he missed a bit.

[DST]

Deliverance is when you play russian roulette with an AK, and walk.

[Brazen]

I though Deliverance was that movie with those dodgy woodsmen.