Lonmin - Value play ???

[kwagga]

Lonmin shareholders got the bear treatment BIG time in the last 14 months. This share however looks like it reached a bit of a short term bottom. Share volumes were an unprecedented 4,7 mil yesterday and the share closed up. Now that paints a picture of its own. So, this is me (omo) that there might be a short term bounce in this for the traders. Sell at a close below 95. Target 120. Resistance at 10250. Trade at your own risk. If you have a layer of titanium over your crown jewels, this is for you. omo http://chartupload.com/viewer.php?file=11525977167672889248.jpg http://chartupload.com/viewer.php?file=41022421649095474650.jpg

[kwagga]

Or maye not.....

[KKKK]

What do you guys think of a buy around R90 for long term?

[SimonPB]

if you want long term rather but the plat ETF/ETN ..

[THRESHOLD]

Or go for a low nominal price share eg. AQP. - IF you are looking for leverage to the platinum price, that is. Personally - I see no compelling reason to buy the metal let alone the miners shares.

[#6]

global platinum surplus is coming close to an end, forecasts are for a deficit in the near future. And as for SA based miners, they benefit from the gearing effect of metals prices. Miners are entering into the perfect storm for rallies. A weak rand will more than likely set a new average trading range for the rand dollar, and as soon as the dollar starts to weaken again, and it will, IMO, then metals prices will increase as well. Only, with the rand in a new trading range, the effect on SA miners will be big gearing. I am betting on Kumba, Exx, the platinum sector for any stock not exposed to Zimbabwe and, dare I actually say it, the gold miners (GFI in particular). KIO is my top pick at the moment, both fundamentally and technically

[THRESHOLD]

That old "short supply" sore. There are rarer elements that are worthless because nobody wants/needs them. In a world that is moving away from petrol driven vehicles towards battery power; a world without jobs and the need to travel to work; a world that is rapidly turning to trains (especially high speed electric rail) as the only cost-effective solution to mass-conveyance; a world that grows more environmentally conscious by the day; an emerging market world that cannot aford to build roads; a world of mega-cities that are banning motor vehicles due to congestion and pollutiom... the current platinum surplus could get much, much worse in the long run.

[THRESHOLD]

AND - hang onto your hat - I feel the same way about oil and SASOL- nevermind peak oil theory. At least PLATINUM has precious metal value and other applications at the end of the day.

[THRESHOLD]

Affordability and cleanliness / environment - those are the themes!

[#10]

well, then that is exactly what the platinum industry needs, isn't it? Catalytic converters account for about 50-60% of global platinum demand. But platinum also has a role to play in fuel cells, so regardless of the way the industry gets regulated, platinum will most likely always have a key role to play

[THRESHOLD]

No - platinum was phase one - fitting catalysts to oil guzzling vehicles. That was the investment theme from 1998. Come and gone. Going forward - we will see these vehicles disappear - togeher with their platinum catalysts (mostly paladium these days, anyway.) Fuel cells - they are even using iron oxide in the latest ones. I wouldn't count on them to replace the demand from cat. conv. units.

[kwagga]

This was a good call, although the expectation for a low was off base