This could go anywhere as there is an amazing number of indicators that are at important technical levels. With the DOW at the psycho 8k level, USD Index threatening an upside breakout, S 'n P below 840 and eyeing 800 (DOW TRAN has broken down already and heading for the 2909 low), FTSE is a hair away from 4000 and DAX heading there fa*****. But, these are also support (or decision) levels. Which way is it going to be? In my opinion it's going to be *****raight through and *****raight down, no dallying about. Ok, so it's a considered guess but if I take ju***** one chart as an example... AMS daily... now if that isn't a dead kitty bounce, then what is?
ja nee, Simon fixed it. I thought I was seeing things. I think the net nanny remembered some of my long gone late night whiskey induced ramblings and decided to put one over on me. Either that or the nanny's been smoking the lawn hehe
Nova, U care to share more views on the USD/ZAR? In principle, I suppose lower interest rate announcement later this week should weaken the Rand because the current account becomes worse? ... but lots of volatility though?
You know mammon, your question is loaded with so many variables it's quite the contrite quandary for us. There are so many things right now that can lead us either into deflation or inflation it's impossible to guess where it's going. Which leaves us with guessing as the only option. Will we get 100bps? I seriously doubt it. Is the ZAR on thin ice? oh yes! I don't even monitor the USDZAR since the USD Index and EURUSD moves (EUR has quite an impact on our consumer imports/exports) pretty much do to the ZAR as they please. Here's the one sure thing: If the USD Index goes up then the ZAR will go down (weaker) since stronger USD means lower dollar prices for commodities. And it's the USD Index I watch since it's a true reflection of dollar strength as a reserve currency against a currency basket, and not just an isolated move against a single cross. If the USD Index does break out to the top then we are going to get clubbed like Robben Island bunnies
If the S&P goes below 800, it would have completed a massive double top formation from over 1500, to technically this means it should go 1500-800-700 down from 800 == 100. The end of the world as we know it. Weee - everyone get your shorts on!