Malema's Attitude

[Pauldelmas]

What will Malema's attitude hold for the country's future share prices?

[THRESHOLD]

Look north, young man. Go West.

[kwagga]

Zip, nothing, zero. He sells newspapers and internet articles and that is it. The media is really having a joy ride at the expence of naive people buying into everything the boy says. It's called noise, and if you want to make decisions on trading and investing you need to learn how to cut through the ***** on offer every day.

[THRESHOLD]

The market ignores Nothing! Malema's is the voice of a large block of people and, when the time is right, the market will turn its attention to him. That cannot be good for stocks. This is part of the general "emerging market risk" that has largely been ignored in the recent runup. Experts have been sounding a clarion regarding this effect for a while now.

[SimonPB]

'when the time is right' ?? when would that be ?? If it so important why is the market ignoring it ??
nah all known info is already priced in, so Malema already priced into our market ..

[#6]

Remembering,of course,Sep-Oct2008....when the Rand died (part 1)..proving that its exchange-rate is +80% based on hot-money flows. And as we ready for Part 2...###Personally,I like Malema.Why? He's such a straightforward feller.He hates this.He takes that.True-blue Bolshevik apparatchick.....Uncle Joe Stalin would be proud.

[Preston]

He is one sad and confused man who is seperated from reality.

[THRESHOLD]

You are a trader - if anone knew when the "time is right" they would be billionaires. Fact is - the worse things get - the more attention the market plays to negative newsflow. The classic downward spriral concept. You have it in writing - the market will pay attention to Malema (or similar) at some point. The market also tends to ruminate - look at the Greece issue - why, if the market is so efficient, did the market bounce on a resolution nobody believed in - last year. If the market were truly that effiient - share charts would be smooth angled lined running to trend. Clearly they are not.

[THRESHOLD]

Don't you find it interesting that the major potential threat to this country (personified in a malema) is also the best investment theme - ie mass cheap consumption and the migration of resources (cash mainly) from fixed asets (property in particular) to consumables. It should actually represent a fairly cut-and-dried investment scenario for those with the cajones. ?

[#10]

In my view, he is a shrewd and dangerous politician, who knows how th rally the crowd, and how to play to his audience. In countries such as ours, guys like this are the worst threat we have, because they can play the populist trump card, and rally the unemployed masses by putting chips on their shoulders. 10 years ago, none of us would have ageed that an unemployed buffoon from Kwazulu Natal, with 6 wives, hands regularly caught in the cookie jar and a belief that a simple shower would act as the cure for the greatest pandemic in Africa would be president of the most powerful economy on the continent, but look where we are now.

[THRESHOLD]

There we go. To indulge oneself by adopting a self-serving attitude that one can ignore this man is very much at your own peril. There is also the very real possibilty that he is a mouthpiece for more sophisticated political players. All I know is that academics of the time roundly dismissed Hitler as simple and irrelevant. Well they were right on the first count ... but as regards the rest. ANYWAY - Investment is all about risk management.

[#12]

Small problems left unattended turn into bigger ones. I for one do not buy in to the idea that this guy is not a serious threat to this country's future. His ideas will not change. We've seen how loyal the uneducated masses are towards the ruling party even in the abscence of service delivery. If he commands their support (the same masses), people can say what they like we're in for a bumpy ride. As others have already pointed out, investment opportunities will still present themselves. On a brighter note, we're not the only country in the world facing challenges? Can't look at ourselves in isolation.

[prancing_horse]

I'm currently in Europe looking at upgrading the property we already own, not for me but my offspring, purely because the noise Malema and his followers make. We all hope it doesn't happen, but if it does at least we have a roof over our heads. Never forget we not only live in Africa, but at the very bottom of it, and it's a long way to civilised east, north and west.

[#14]

OK, I will be the first to ask - where is the property, and did you bond it?

[RisseN]

Anyone who thinks Malema is not a real threat to this country is blind. He speaks to the uneducated masses and they listen! There is likely no one on this forum that can be thought of as his 'target market'. Most of us here think he is a loud, obnoxious, attention seeking fool,...but it's not what we think about him that matters. What matters is that he has the ear of the vast majority out there who are too uneducated to understand what he is doing. Unfortunatly the majority of voters out there have a very low intelligence level,...and those are the people who support the likes of malema. If this country was filled with intelligent, educated voters we could afford to laugh at this fool, but that is not the case.

[prancing_horse]

Alassio , italian Riviera.Purchased by my late father 40years ago, as he said 'never forget that we live in Africa'. I used to argue with him that it was a waste of money, (young and naive9, now older and wiser.Shuold I sell it will be good for 60to 70% of what I have in mind so bond will be required.At internet cafe, so can't stay long, besides the sunshine and beach is calling, but will pop into chat room from time to time.Ciao 4 now

[topgun]

This is going to be quite a spectacle - the blinkered and naive liberals (the masses donA't want land/nationalisation has been sandbagged) vs. the revolutionaries. Just consider the context A- 50% of the SA population is below 23 years of age with 50% youth unemployment, a faltering education system with a dumbed down pass rate, a lacklustre and hamstrung economy creating no jobs of consequence, a buffoon in charge with a populist rabble-rouser as a sidekick. This makes for quite a toxic *****tail with a fairly predictable outcome that will finally shatter the rainbow myth. As for the denialistsA..just allow the situation some more time to fester and remember there are many juju clones out there. Umshini wami?

[SimonPB]

no 'fact is' the news and views of Malema is already in the market .. it has to be, because it is known .. so uless he changes his stance he is already priced in ..

[THRESHOLD]

Nope.

[THRESHOLD]

Benjamin Graham relied on extended periods of inefficiency of the market in vlauing certain assets. Buffet relies on irrational market movements. Even David Ricardo (all those years ago) - understood that markets were irrational relative to expaectations for any given period of time - as did Isaac Newton. If the market disounts so efficiently then why are you buying construction stocks?