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Market crahes

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Super Contributor
I know gold isnt really liked here, but with all this hype on market crashes, wouldn't a small portion in gold companies be wise? Even without some any real danger from market crashes, there is still value to be had from gold miners?
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23 REPLIES 23
Super Contributor
Also consider the Newgold ETF. Nice rand hedge.
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Super Contributor
Was thinking more specific companies, most are dual listed anyway.
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Super Contributor
Just keep in mind that the actual company has risks like strikes, overhead costs and logistics and all sorts of things whereas the physical gold has its underlying value and that's it... One must see the mining company as a whole with its operation etc, it could be good but also could have many risks...
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Valued Contributor
I say ignore the hype (and gold) .. there is always hype, markets climb a wall of worry and sure they eventually crash and some even call the crash, but they either lucky or spent years calling for the crash ..
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Super Contributor
Without than even thinking of possible market crashes and any other hype and looking purely at price of gold or gold mining companies, would you be interested?
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Valued Contributor
nope, don't like the investment case for gold and don't like single commodity mining stocks unless the commodity is in massive strong bull trend, and no commodity is currently (except for coffee)
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Super Contributor
Do you have a system, then share/ instrument selection is part of the system.....
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Super Contributor
Gold ETF or nothing!
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Super Contributor
Any specific reason for that?
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Super Contributor
Because the Gold Companies dont make money thats why. IF you are hell bent on it dude be my guest.
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Super Contributor
Bought SGL as part of another trading system, but thinking of locking some profits and letting the rest work as hedge for R/Dollar and gold going up.
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Not applicable
the wait to call a crash is not as long as you think
1800-1950 - crashes happen once a decade
1950-1980 - crashes happen twice a decade
1980-2015 - crashes happen three times a decade.

1998, 2000, 2003, 2008, 2011, ?
They happen more and more often as more and more people meddle.
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Valued Contributor
thinks we confusing crash with bear .. 2003/2011 were not crashes, 2003 was a bear 2011 was positive ??
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Not applicable
I agree, I think we talking past one another, depending on our definitions and time horizons. To be more clear:
2011 was a 15% correction in SA but 25% move in the US.
2003 Im referring to ALSI moving from 11,000p to 7,000 (35%).
I see that started in April 2002 to be more accurate.

My point really though is that these events happen a lot more often than we realize, we think markets carry on for years and years without significant pullbacks but it seems another event is always around the corner (about every 5 years).
One could argue though in the big scheme of things they happen over small periods, for instance if you took the cycle 2003 to 2009, only 9 months out of the 6 years was a crash period, but how often the events happen is just quite regularly.
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Super Contributor
The real question is - did gold react positively (and adequately) to all of these "events". A bear market could well drag gold down with it... A "crash" is more likely to cause a gold price spike; but even then - not always.
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Super Contributor
Anybody care to take up that challenge? Think that would be an interesting result!!
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Valued Contributor
problem with gold is that it is easy to liquidate, so in a crash it often gets sold off as people need cash in a hurry
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Super Contributor
There would be allot of buyers to offset the sellers though
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Valued Contributor
hence price moves weaker as sellers > buyers
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