Technicians are cautious. "Given improvement in risk appetite and absence of significant ETF inflows we could see the metal extend lower to target technical chart support around $883," wrote James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com. While long-term gold fundamentals appear sound, fund participation may be required to give the metal any kick-start going forward. The recent rally to $1,000 "exhibits the unmistakable footprints of speculative hedge funds," said Jan Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers. Nadler came to that conclusion because "the buying stopped suddenly, and ETF holdings grew no further -- this, despite no material change in global macro conditions."
The stupid money (that's mine) is on a fall in the market; possibly a rise in the gold price (it has been on a downward trend recently, but ETF inflows are bound to resume sometime, and it's just leapt up quite nicely); and dollar strength / rand weakness. The VIX is at it's lowest level in almost a month; US jobless data was worse than expected again; we've had bad reports in the US mortgage arena. I fail to see how the market can rally from here.
It's already open (daylight savings time), so my post was rather late, and the fact that they are moving up just shows how stupid my money is. Gold on the other hand is staying up... Oh well, we'll see how long it lasts...
I predicted the rally but got it totally wrong for gold. In a normal situation you get markets rally and gold tumbling. Made a fortune going long at mid day! It will be another interesting day tomorrow
Ditto Tom, good to see u around as your analysis has always been spot on. I went long fsr (@11,50) and short gfi(@120) (which was thankfully stopped out)....hopefully the former should fly to the moon 2day with a rocket like fsrsbl. Me thinks golds are overextended in the very short term but I fully expect to see gfi hit R140 at least...this month! adios...
Resources leading the way at moment. i think next week tuesday there will be a small little wave leg down till end of that week then the following week will be a big wave up!!! WE shall see, any other opinions?
What might be bullish for gold, is that China said they are concerned as to whether their US treasuries will retain their value. (China is the largest holder of US debt; it forms approximately 1/2 of their reserves.) Will they start looking to hold more gold and fewer treasuries? (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090313/as_china_us_economy.html)