I dont think any 1 statistic can really call a crash, and I know we all love to pinpoint 1 thing to understand a crash (subprime mortgage, IT crisis, asian crisis, etc) but reading more on these crashes it seems its when a *****tail of goods seem to happen at the same time, eventually 1 day the music just stops.
Ever noticed how crashes really only tend to happen with PEs are at abnormal levels? Why didnt we have the 2008 crisis in 2006?
Bernanke already knew about the housing bubble with infamous quote, "All that said, given the fundamental factors in place that should support the demand for housing, we believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited, and we do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system "
Stimulus is another factor that plays big in the role, its the fuel in the jet engine, take it out of the airplane and all youve got is a big brick.
Currently though this house of cards is built on:
ATH on PE ratios
Tapering
DCFs looking forward using stimulus assumptions. (past growth)
Margin debt at ATH
VIX and Complacency at ATL
Slowing growth worldwide (US, China, Euro) - hence why we looking at Draghi today
Interest rates already hiked in SA
Recession looming in the resource sector (and possibly electricity)
Petrol and Inflation at ATH.
etc, etc, etc
When will the music stop? Who knows