Visit our COVID-19 site for latest information regarding how we can support you. For up to date information about the pandemic visit www.sacoronavirus.co.za.

bs-regular
bs-extra-light
bs-light
bs-light
bs-cond-light-webfont
bs-medium
bs-bold
bs-black

Community


Share knowledge. Ask questions. Find answers.

Online Share Trading

Engage and learn about markets and trading online

Monday will not be boring.....

Reply
Not applicable
the dow and s&P and Nasdaq action on Friday was to say the least intersting....VIX is at its highest level and about to top the recent highs (the same level occured last time we had a sell off). The strong rally near the close and then the eventual sell off again give a good hint of how traders see the future....the dow ended below 12000 and below the 21 day ema but above the 8 day....so the question is ....dow we rally back to the 21 day and then sell of big time or do we get through it...the fed decision favours the former....so what about our market.....the strength of our market has been remarkable....overlaying the the two markets shows this very dramatically....the top 40 is at a key decision point....we rallied up to just short of the recent highs (intraday) closed above the all time closing high of 28762 and we fell back quite sharply to rally again....I see a short firing off quite soon...I dont see the momentum to get us through the closing high again but if we do then we will see quite a rally...the emerging market performance before our open will give some hint as to how global markets are digesting the Bear news....I dont think they will like it...the process says much more than the actual numbers....what else is lurking? is what the world is asking....but remember this is all irrelevant waffle....just trade the price....
0 Kudos
18 REPLIES 18
Wizard
Super Contributor
How often do u look at the VIX index? The recent highs and lows are predicted quite accurately! 75 points of the FED's decision are already in the market. They say they may have to step in as soon as Monday to prevent further sell offs. I think there is just one big drop that has to come on the DOW before going long again. That final C wave of the C wave that started 27 Feb.
0 Kudos
Not applicable
always useful to look at it when there are extreme readings cause there is a high correlation as you suggest....yes 75 basis pts is in the price....
0 Kudos
Not applicable
The VIX's reaction to a short market pullback of a few hours or a few days is an excellent indicator of how market participants are currently reacting to the market and what they expect will follow. If market weakness is met with an increased demand for puts, the VIX will spike upwards. Such spikes are a telltale sign of fear in the market- a very healthy and bullish view for expectational analysts; speculators will tend to buy puts after they have sold out of their long positions. This often signals an end to short-term selling pressure. If the VIX does not increase on a pullback, it signals that the public is meeting the market downturn with complacency and has expectations of a quick recovery. In these cases, there is often more downside motion to follow. As such, the VIX plays a key role in our ability to predict future market performance.
0 Kudos
Not applicable
at the Jan lows the VIX was at about 36...on Friday it closed at 31...
0 Kudos
Werner_1
Super Contributor
Chartist, where can i find a VIX chart on the net without logon?
0 Kudos
saash
Super Contributor
Chartist, what is the expectation with JSE with all this in mind? Global nervous tension leads investors into Gold to hedge against falling currancy values. China's economic growth pushing demand for resources higher. SA heavily weighted in resources. Our emerging markets growth slowed, but not stagnant. Higher resource prices make new shafts and deeper mining become viable. Our production of metals surges. Our market may be set to climb to new highs IMO. I don't underestimate the power Anglo's have over Government regarding the Eskom situation in a mining climate such as this. Resources are still very plentiful - at the right price.
0 Kudos
Tango
Super Contributor
Take a look at the ALSI chart ex-resources. The resource stocks and the mighty Rand are propping our indexes up, but for the rest of the market outside of the resource stocks the picture is pretty grim. We're trading below the 200DMA on the daily chart, and just come back to kiss the old support line.
0 Kudos
scandal
Super Contributor
yes indeed Monday will not be boring. Me thinks that we might edge higher on the open on current gold price. Maybe even challenge the highs intra day but the close will be very important. On weekly chart Top40 last couple of weeks have been interesting. Three rising candles followed by a spinning top indicating some indecision on market direction. Last week then a bullish hammer indicating that the market might be heading up on open this week or just bargain hunting on non-resource shares. When one looks at ALSI ex resources this has been interesting. Same three crows but then a bearish engulfing candle followed by bearish hanging man that did penetrate intra week the lows on engulfing candle and closed near the previous week close. IMO this indicates that resources have been propping the ALSI and should the tide turn resources we might see some sort of selling. Interestingly the price of gold on weekly charts has made similar formation with three up weeks with the last on being a spinning top, possibly profit taking. Me thinks a correction is due on gold chart which could see some selling on resource index as we follow gold price and dragged lower by the rest of the JSE.
0 Kudos
Wizard
Super Contributor
That ALEX index looks more like a DOW chart now! If u take the absolute returns it outperforms it, probably because the investors are looking with one eye at the DOW and with another at the RESI! No doubt it looks horrible 4 all money.
0 Kudos
Not applicable
nice one Chartist - an interesting read ..
0 Kudos
Not applicable
thanks everyone - most interesting commentary...
0 Kudos
Not applicable
this rally is the VIX at work........
0 Kudos
john_1
Super Contributor
Were are you watching this Vixen at work
0 Kudos
john_1
Super Contributor
Hey Chartboy, why you no answer, I know read my posts!
0 Kudos
saash
Super Contributor
And you plan to do a video on this, right?
0 Kudos
asylum
Super Contributor
should be a best seller.
0 Kudos
john_1
Super Contributor
The VIXen at work will shaft your short a working title film.
0 Kudos