momentum, yes no maybe. Foreigners been sellign SA all of the year with Octobetr the largest month of selling. rand moves for many many reasons, capital out flows being just one of them.
from reuters
(Refiles to fix typo in paragraph 3) JOHANNESBURG, Nov 13 (Reuters) - South Africa's rand weakened against the dollar on Thursday as worries returned to the market after the United States backed away from buying troubled mortgage assets.
The move increased uncertainty about whether the United States will succeed in its banking rescue plans, and pushed global stocks lower. World markets are gripped by a credit crisis with its roots in the U.S. subprime mortgage market.
The local bourse looked set to follow international stocks lower, with the blue chip Top-40 December futures contract
down 3.66 percent ahead of the 0700 GMT open.
At 0630 GMT the rand was trading at 10.57 to the dollar, about 0.76 percent weaker than its last New York close of 10.49 on Wednesday.
"There's so much negativity back in the market and after what Paulson said about the subprime, a little bit of uncertainty crept back in the market. The dollar also had a good night," said Jim Bryson, chief dealer at RMB.
"There's no real positives for the rand right now but we need to break 10.85 to weaken further," he added.
But some analysts said the rand could rebound in the next few days.
"Thin market conditions make short-term forecasts extremely unreliable, yet we note that the rand has very quickly hit the oversold mark, raising expectations of an imminent short-term bounce," said Alvise Marino, emerging market analyst at IDEAglobal.
"Our bias remains for further range-bound trading, yet with a shift towards the 10.05-10.54 range."
South African government bonds were weaker, in line with the rand. The yield on the 2015 bond was up 4.5 basis points to 8.895 percent and that on the 2036 issue was up 5.5 basis points to 8.245 percent.