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Online Share Trading

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Morning all

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Not applicable
Its a blood bath once again......just a Q who knows how to trade in this hectic times....where every market is falling through its #$%. The world is crashing every single day....Bears run the show @ the mo.
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26 REPLIES 26
Not applicable
learnt the hard way in bulls trade up in bears trade down simple rule no catching falling knives- seems to work 4 me omho
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
well then run with the bears ?
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Not applicable
alsi fut down 427
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Not applicable
I hear all that.....aren't you guys just a little worried as to whats happening????
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
in what sense ? This is what markets and or economies do ?
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asylum
Super Contributor
only worry if youre long.
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Not applicable
bargains like this dont come alone every day, buy wise and should have to worry too much in a few years time. Greater risk = greater reward...
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_nova
Super Contributor
wragtag, I think the TOP40 is going to drop into the late 16000's today if my swing system is any good
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Not applicable
rand is at 10.52 means the foreigners are running out of the jse into usd
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
momentum, yes no maybe. Foreigners been sellign SA all of the year with Octobetr the largest month of selling. rand moves for many many reasons, capital out flows being just one of them.
from reuters
(Refiles to fix typo in paragraph 3) JOHANNESBURG, Nov 13 (Reuters) - South Africa's rand weakened against the dollar on Thursday as worries returned to the market after the United States backed away from buying troubled mortgage assets.

The move increased uncertainty about whether the United States will succeed in its banking rescue plans, and pushed global stocks lower. World markets are gripped by a credit crisis with its roots in the U.S. subprime mortgage market.

The local bourse looked set to follow international stocks lower, with the blue chip Top-40 December futures contract down 3.66 percent ahead of the 0700 GMT open.

At 0630 GMT the rand was trading at 10.57 to the dollar, about 0.76 percent weaker than its last New York close of 10.49 on Wednesday.

"There's so much negativity back in the market and after what Paulson said about the subprime, a little bit of uncertainty crept back in the market. The dollar also had a good night," said Jim Bryson, chief dealer at RMB.

"There's no real positives for the rand right now but we need to break 10.85 to weaken further," he added.

But some analysts said the rand could rebound in the next few days.

"Thin market conditions make short-term forecasts extremely unreliable, yet we note that the rand has very quickly hit the oversold mark, raising expectations of an imminent short-term bounce," said Alvise Marino, emerging market analyst at IDEAglobal.

"Our bias remains for further range-bound trading, yet with a shift towards the 10.05-10.54 range."

South African government bonds were weaker, in line with the rand. The yield on the 2015 bond was up 4.5 basis points to 8.895 percent and that on the 2036 issue was up 5.5 basis points to 8.245 percent.
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Russ
Super Contributor
I do feel sorry for investors who have hung onto their long-term portfolios through all this.The philosophy of just riding out the corrections has always been a good one,but this bear market is something else.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
nah russ, the issue here is that most people only entered the jse post 2003 so have never expereienced a bull market. This is just a normal run of the mill bear, nothing fancy.
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_nova
Super Contributor
I learn't quickly and painfully during the recession at the start of this century that the biggest mistake any investor can make is to assume that shorter timescales tell the whole story ie 'correction'. Anything right up to daily charts only tell you what's happening right now. To understand the longer term big picture you need to look at weekly and monthly charts. If you are invested long term then you are crazy if you don't use weekly and monthly charts to signal primary trends. By definition an investor is a bull and is always long. There really are only two smart types of investor out there [1] The investor who uses a stoploss strategy and [2] the investor who uses derivatives to hedge his longs and then averages down on his stocks to take advantage of cheaper prices. Don't get me wrong here, I'm 100% a trader but I do hold some long term views and I protect them with the 2nd strategy. The myth of 'buy and hold' is properly debunked. That's like driving a car without insurance. Buy and hold is only smart if you have an insurance policy. Many, many investors are now locked in at sky high prices and will remain locked in for probably years to come. I do feel sorry for those of you who are in this unfunny position because I've also been there and it took me a long time to recover. All I can say is learn from this and next time round make sure you always have an insurance plan
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Not applicable
is anglo heading for a fall?
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Apis
Occasional Contributor
Simon, we know we have to adapt to the changing situations in the Market place. You have been in this business for quite a while. Now this "crash" what we all see, has some interesting similarities of crashes since the 1920th. I'like to know how the Rothschields and Rockefellers are doing right now.. do they have any Listing anywhere? Money can't get lost, it just changes the possessor of it. The question remains - where did it go this time. Sir Carl Popper (simplified):"If you get stuck in something, (allmost exponential rises of stocks / recource prices prior July/August (mathematical limit almost reached)) - break it to pieces, pick it up and start all over again.. Regards MK
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Not applicable
BEARS ARE HAVING IT ALL OWN WAY TILL IS COMPLETE CAPITULATION; IS ONLY BAD NEWS COMING OUT OF WORLD ECONOMIES WHAT A MESS!I GUESS ALL IS LOST
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
'buy and hold' is properly debunked, nah not at all. An this really is a debate that I am trying to avoid. But the biggest problem with the buy an hold story is that people bought rubbish at inflated prices. Average compounded return of the JSE (ex divs) is around 20% a year. But if you'd bought the quality when it was cheap that number goes up markedly. Go back 20 years and check price an returns of stocks. One example (I use it only as I have the numbers in my head). SBK below 200c in 1990, dividend received since then over R20.

As for hedging for long term investors, me thinks it is nonsense, only the seller of the hedge makes money.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
interesting similarities don't interest me, this is the right side of the chart - what's is important is what is still to some. Main thing to understand (which many people don't) is that this is a slow process. the bear doesn't just suddenly roll over an die, it takes time - a lot more time then most people are prepared to give it.
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Not applicable
Simon where do you think the following share prices will be in two years?? SOL PAID 240 ACL PAID 73 GFI PAID 65 Do you think i should cash out,am only 5% down as it stands would love to hear your comments.
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