My Crystal Ball for today...

[#1]

... tells me that we are in for a really nice rally this afternoon (16840 a level I'm currently watching on the ALSI futures). BIL will make a nice hammer candle by closing above 135.50 and all will be just swell in the world of those that are long... could be we also crash into oblivion but I'm contrarian for the time being as evryone on this frum is currently in a state of extreme fear, everyone predicting the absolute last level of support.

[#2]

Nice 2 hear this positive talk. Absolutely with you because Im done avereging down. This HAS to turn around from here otherwise its gonna be a long wait and see for me.

[#3]

I'm also long in the hope of a rally, just I didn't want to admit it publicly because everyone would laugh at me... Seriously, do you think that we could have a sizeable rally even before the Dow opens?

[Pam_1]

DOW futures bounced up from its low of 8100 earlier, but is now on its way back down there with a passion. Red all round.

[theyoungster]

the trend is your friend....dont try go against it

[#6]

Wena, I hate to disagree, but the probability is down, not up. However, the top 40 futures is testing support at about 16650 - has bounced from that level twice today. If it goes below that, we're heading down; if it retests again and it holds, we might see your little rally...

[#7]

and we're off! ...or we were at least, 16840 broke but alas we could not close above it... c'mon, you can do it Mr. ALSI!

[_nova]

Right now I'm looking at US Financials close prices for yesterday and o/n futures for Dec08 contracts and everything from LIBOR to 2Y TNote to 30Y TBond are up and you don't often see them all going the same direction. That is a pretty good indicator that stocks are going down. Dec08 futures for S&P, DOW, Nasdaq and Russell2000 are all red. I'd be real careful about going long before the US opens. OMO

[#9]

lets see what happens ...all that I know is that for a while now all I see happening in the PM session is see ppl getting sucked into a false rally....the turnaroud is usually viscious...too viscious to get out without scars....so I would really urge caution...a rally will come had and strong but you will see it happen ...it will be clear as day...so dont try and look for it through all the sediment the bottom feeders are kicking up....Mike Hansen and David Shapiro are battling for their lives down there somewhere....

[#10]

Thats what Mike Hansen said about Investec at ZAR 70...it has to? Investec is now at 37....

[#11]

Murphy's law on probability: When the chances on getting something right is 50/50 the probability in getting it wrong is 80%.

[#12]

LOL Charty, thats funny. Admitted, my crystal ball may be a little hazy as I just loathe dusting around the house. Let me just quickly give it a good rub...

[#13]

Nova, you seem to be watching just about everything on the market, how do you ever come to a decision to trade. It all sound over complicated, just trade what's in front of you?

[dilligaff]

Chartman
I love that "viscious" word of yours - combo of the treacle we're wading thru as we attempt to catch those falling knives...

[#15]

yeah combo of vicious and viscous....a treacherous quagmire...bit like sinking sand...

[SimonPB]

Paul Hansen.

[_nova]

Wena I used to trade what's in front of me and destroyed four FX accounts in the process. It was an expensive lesson. Then I learn't over time that having the right information for an instrument at the right time is the great equaliser that reduces the risk. In FX the golden rule is to check News, Fundamentals and TA in that order. Any FX trader will tell you you're nuts if you trade without direct live newsfeeds and a beady eye on instruments that reflect economic fundamentals. My trading style comes from FX and yes, I look at lots of things because I understand how they're interrelated. I'm not saying trading what's in front of you is wrong, just that I do not trade unless I have a clear view of current news, fundamentals, and any instruments that fall into the butterfly effect category. I'm doing something right because so far I've come through this year without fear and with my principal intact

[SimonPB]

nova, what feeds do you use for news, libor etc ?

[_nova]

Simon for my news I use my FX accounts as I've generally found FX traders to be quickest of the mark when things happen. The two news feeds I currently use are FXCM's DailyFX Plus (I'm not sure if it's free but you can try at https://plus.dailyfx.com/tnews/index.jsp Lots of good stuff but they're sometimes a bit slow on the uptake when data releases are done. The other one I use is FX Solutions Global Trading System (see www.fxsolutions.com) and their market news ticker is awesomely fast. You get global economic info within seconds of release. Futures etc I check on eSignal but a very good site with lots of info (although delayed data) is at http://www2.barchart.com/mktcom.asp

[_nova]

Wena? Peter Navarro gives a very elegant explanation of why information is important. He said ""Any trader or investor who ignores the power of macroeconomics over the world's financial markets will, sooner or later, lose more than they should-and if they are trading on margin, perhaps more than they have." -- If It's Raining in Brazil, Buy Starbucks" A good example: US PPI just came out at -2.8% Oct and Core up 0.3%. The USD immediately gets thumped and our market will spike higher. Look to retest 16700 on the TOP40