Anything can happen between now and 2015. Iron Ore's current future is driven by Chinese consumption, but in 3-4 years, any number of nations could bick up the batton. But in any case, Kumba's fortunes are hedged a bit by the rand, and upstream projects. So if Iron Ore prices drop, in theory, the $ will strengthen, and KIO's revenue stream will flatline. But with a PE of 8, it can absorb that kind of situation. So right now, KIO is a cash cow of note - it has some downward potential, for sure, since it is not exactly sitting with relative strength to the market right now. My preference is for Exxaro, which gives you the coal assets as well. And coal has some strong fundamentals right now
The Rand tends to weaken in tandem with commodities. Commodity stocks tend to "out-collapse" the market when things come unstuck. Given events in Europe etc., I would rather not own KIO at this juncture.