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Online Share Trading

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Rossi
Contributor
Good morning, I just need some advice on what to do here, I am currently holding a mass amount of shares in Sasol. I bought Sasol shares for a long term position, I bought in at R470,obviously we can see I'm down.... Should I sell and try and re-enter at better price or ride it out????? My long term view is about 5 to 10 years?
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23 REPLIES 23
louisg
Super Contributor
What were your reasons for buying SOL?
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Rossi
Contributor
I beleieve it's a good company and while oil prices are going up.... enjoy....
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louisg
Super Contributor
Did you base your decision on technical analysis (TA)or fundemental analysis (FA)?
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Rossi
Contributor
Fundemental, to me this company will strengthen, but in time.... the question I'm trying to figure out is how long is "TIME" Are you by any chance holding SOL?
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louisg
Super Contributor
Nobody knows the answer to your question on "time". Attempting to time the market is IMPOSSIBLE in the short term.SOL is a quality company with great economic prospects. No, I do not hold SOL at this time. PS google "margin of safety buffet"
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SD
Contributor
I haven't been trading for long but this is my opinion.10 years is a really long time. There are many things to consider. I do believe that SOL is a great company and i do believe it will grow in the future. Having said that, the globe is moving to other sources of energy as they are realising oil is getting scarce, which is bad for SOL. In 5 years i believe it will grow but in 10 years it could be risky. Why not put your money in a share like MTN or a banking share where you know there is no real risk which we know of. As i said, that's only my opinion.
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john_1
Super Contributor
LG excuse me..it is very very possible to time the market. Nothing is impossible. As an investor, it is the trend and not the bottom that matters( for you to make any money in stocks the price must rise and as a long term investor it must rise consistantly over time = trend.)Going back to Sasol... you mistimed your buy based on the current share price so what? If the trend for oil and energy continues Sasol should also rise along with that rising global trend. So forgive yourself the mistake of mistiming the market, after all you are new at this and let the market do its thing. SASOL is a great long term hold.
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john_1
Super Contributor
LG buying shares at below there VALUE is a form of market timing. Not an effective one but it still is a form of timing. Nobody ever buys without trying to time the market as this yourster has demonstrated with his post.
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louisg
Super Contributor
John... you are officially excused. I hold the view that it is IMPOSSIBLE to time the markets in the short term CONSISTENTLY. The only trend that I look out for is the PROFIT (earnings) trend. There is a big difference between paying too much for a share and therefore not getting value nor having a "margin of safety" and mistiming a purchase of a share. Price is what you pay, value is what you get. If you do not pay the correct price you do not get value.
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Tona
New Contributor
Rossi, if it's any consolation I bought Impala in May (based on both Fundamentals and Technical Analysis), at 335, but it has since fallen to 230. But I'm not jumping out bcos, firstly, the stock has already fallen substantially for me to salvage anything and at this level chances are it will hold and swing up rather than fall further. Plus the fundamentals remain +ve, with Zimbabwe potentially coming Ok. On Sasol, they are pumping money even at $90 bcos of their coal-to-liquid process, and that's set to be a key advantage going forward. However, their Capex ambitions (including Sasol 3 in the Waterberg), could stifle net cash flows and dividends. SO HOLD ROSSI.
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6 months from now ull be smiling............
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Rossi
Contributor
thanks guys for the sound advice, I really do appeciate it.
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Perhaps we need to be a little wary of the platinums? A couple of weeks ago OST did an excellent fully reasoned analysis of where plats are going, the quick version being that by 2012 demand will have tapered off substantially. But today The Daily Standard is suggesting that 2008 and 2009 aren't going to be great either, also due to decreased demand. I've been waiting to add to my IMPs, but I think I'm going to think again. And it was just a few short weeks ago that I was one of those who believed plats were going to go up forever.
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Brazen
Super Contributor
Jez baby, as you well know, the only thing that goes up for ever is Chartist's *******. Well, as least in his videos.
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mosismoke
Contributor
Stick it out especially if you sell with the intention of coming back later.
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Have sold Sasol yesterday and bought PPC - Any constructive comment?
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louisg
Super Contributor
Well if you believe that, then you must believe that market timing is a form of value ivesting. Would you consider yourself a value investor?
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louisg
Super Contributor
You have sold a quality company with good prospects at a fair price and bought another quality company with good prospects available at below a fair price. OMO. Why did you swap? Long or short term buy?
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Gawd, B, you've given me really horrible head-pics.
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