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OK call it!

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Not applicable
Calling all budding economists... it's time to make a prediction on the events of the next few days. I say, the SARB hikes 50bps, but the BoE limits the damage to our market by cutting UK rates by 25bps and the US ignores rising oil prices thanks to a stronger dollar - so we still end the week up. Next week, Uncle Ben slashes US rates by 50 and the bulls across the globe ignore the fact that it was pretty much priced in and rejoice until mid December. After that, my crystal ball gets hazy.
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24 REPLIES 24
Preston
Super Contributor
No hike on Thursday. Next hike early in 2008.
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MichaelR
Regular Contributor
one full point !!
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prof
Regular Contributor
.25 of a basis point
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Not applicable
One full point wud be good...but I think he will play it safe with 50 now and 50 in Feb.OMO
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saash
Super Contributor
.75 - our ecomony has bee seen to be shaking off the increases so far. Christmas time. We don't want too much over-spending. Then can ease off slightly in the new year.
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Wizard
Super Contributor
Does anyone know Tito's number?
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CHATTYCHAT
Super Contributor
All I can say is Preston was right the last time, then he predicted a zero increase next time around and it seems he sticks to his guns. Preston, the same stakes still on the table? I believe you didn't throw Tito's tel number away?
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Preston
Super Contributor
Hey Mr C. Nice to see ya back on this forum.
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Stock11
Contributor
Tito is aware of the crazy spending that normally goes with this time of the year. He has never been afraid to shock the markets. I predict a 100bps increase to curb further spending and borrowing particularly in the two months and maybe a zero rate increase in Feb 08.
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Not applicable
tito will add 50 pts today and probably another 50 early next year. fed will cut rates by 50 pts next week. we'll prob be flat b4 the announcement and move up once its made in anticipation of the us cut, but bad news from the US and subprime issues will still be around to haunt us for the better part of next year-so the bumpy ride (spikes and dips) will continue.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
He has never been afraid to shock the markets is completely wrong. He has done everything in his power to NOT shock the market. He spends ages before hand giving talks and putting across his view etc. A classic grey suited gov.
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Not applicable
My opinion is that if Tito raises the rate with 1% the new year will bring our own "sub-prime" crises. All those 3rd and 4th properties Absa and the others financed willy-nilly at 100% bonds will flood onto the market causing a drop in property prices and thereafter the inevitable foreclosures! I therefore agree with Simon that he will not attempt to "shock" the market.
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CHATTYCHAT
Super Contributor
Actually, I'm in and out from time to time. Just making less noise so as not to display that I'm an idiot :-) Very busy making money on the full time job, and leave the share gamble to the guys who know what they're doing. Will have to win some share losses back though, don't have a strategy as yet. Regards.
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divz
Super Contributor
My opinion 50 pts which has already been priced into market.If anything the surprise will be if Tito leaves rates unchanged there has been talk, Trevor amongst others, that the previous hikes have started taking effect and they may want to give it some more time before another hike, Tito has in the past acted against expectations.
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Not applicable
I think that he will increase .5 to highlight the need to spend less credit, otherwise if he does nothing ppl will see it as an excuse to go credit spending thereby making it worse in the new year so i say he will increase it .5% or all his efforts so far will seem in vain, and it will be better for the ppl as well as it gets closer to elections it will give him leeway to cut rates thus increasing the polls as well as showing a stronger economy. ( all u ppl as well as myself have been getting numerous sms/calls to in crease debt. )
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Preston
Super Contributor
I will bet LN a bottle of the most expensive Cape to Rio met eish, that no increase in interest rate. We have a bet LN?
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Not applicable
Preston, let's say you're right - do you reckon that will translate into a good rise on the JSE after 3pm today? Then, hopefully, another one tomorrow if the Bank of England cuts the UK rates later on?
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Preston
Super Contributor
The JSE will possibly close higher for today. OMO
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Project_Directo
Super Contributor
two pints of lager and a packet of chips ,please.lol
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