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Community


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Online Share Trading

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On my specialist watchlist.

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barry_1
Super Contributor
I placed it there last week,seems as if "consensus" for once agrees with me!
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37 REPLIES 37
sponono
Super Contributor
what about the trend?
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barry_1
Super Contributor
i think its reached bottom,read my comments on my Specialist watchlist on my blog....sashares2010.blogspot.com
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sponono
Super Contributor
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stores
Super Contributor
Barry are you in contact with Werner.. (The GND guru)....He would have a lot to say on this one...I miss his comments...I have some in my long term +3 year portfolio. Good luck
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barry_1
Super Contributor
Unfortunately not.It seems as if his web-site is not there anymore.
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kwagga
Super Contributor
This share follows the Baltic Dry Index. If the index turns up, so will GND. If it doesn't GND won't either, so look for a turn on the index. Calling a bottom on this one will constitute a hunch at best, expect if the fundamentals tell you a different story.
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barry_1
Super Contributor
Yes,but they have diversified.On my blog i said i expected a recovery to continue upwards over a longer time frame.Also the Consensus now considers this a BUY. See OST homepage.
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kwagga
Super Contributor
Don't get me wrong Barry. I like this company and have been a shareholder in the past, but I'm just not convinced that this is actually the bottom. I'll look out for the turn. It can't be that far away.
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Not applicable
Barry, I think GND is risky, and it used to be a favourite of mine. Shipping these days contributes around 1% of bottom line, so Kwagga's observation regarding BDI is not necessarily accurate. Trading - which makes up 80% of the group's turnover - only yields like 1% margin, so while this is forcast to grow, it is not going to wow the shareholders. Commodities trading is a tricky business at the best of times, and there are, to my knowledge, not many companies on the JSE that successfully make decent money like this. The star performer is the freight business, which is a nice steady low risk utilities typoe of investment - and then banking, which is at 40% operating margin. So with a PE of 13, the investment community is clearly banking on a return to glory for the shipping division. This is not a bad bet, but GND is fully priced, IMO. I will pick up any dip below R11 - since I think that will be a good low risk long term investment
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Wino
Super Contributor
I am in agreement with skaap. I sold when Remgro got involved as the extra 15% dilution would hurt HEPS at a time when shipping is in the doldrums so, I am not surprised at this correction. Maputo, freight and banking will keep it going but until shipping improves I also think it is fully priced and will look to re-enter at R12 or thereabouts.Having said that however, I wonder what the esteemed brains trust at Remgro saw when they valued it at R15? Are we missing something perhaps?
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Dutch
Frequent Contributor
have you seen this:World shipping crisis threatens German dominance as Greeks win long game http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/9473476/World-shipping-crisis-threatens-Ge...
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Rams
Super Contributor
Barry, what do you see in the fundamentals that makes you want to buy for long term?
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Rams
Super Contributor
steady decline in profitabilty, and an entrenched downtrend on technicals...
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barry_1
Super Contributor
Hi,income received from 81% trading,10%shipping,8%freight,-1%banking....their tie up with the largest coal company in the world in Sub Saharan Africa Vitol 65%/GND35% and REM gives me confidence that they will succeed.
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Rams
Super Contributor
would it not be better to just buy coal then? I dont agree with the forecasts, especially looking at their results...lets see what the results are next week
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barry_1
Super Contributor
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sponono
Super Contributor
Good call Mr Barry White and the market seems to like the interims. Would have loved them to be above 95 though but the story here seems to be that of recovery. I hope ships moving in the ocean is also good news for commodity stocks.
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Not applicable
problem here ....maybe you can tell me if you see it as a problem or not...BDIY peaked a few days ago at 711...ytd its dow 60%....will GND be leading or is the BDIY leading?
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
and is there correlation ??
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