Probability puzzle

[prancing_horse]

If you spin a coin 10000, you will get plus minus 5000 heads(H) and 5000 tails (T).If you analyse the results you will find that after each H spun you will get roughly the same percentage of H & T, likewises after each T, you will get equal amount of H & T, in other words 50/50.So this pattern HH,HT,TH,TT will be split 25% each.I wonder what odds a bookie would have given against Michael Clarke losing the toss yesterday, after already have lost eight in a row calling tails.I bet it would be as close as dammit to 50/50.

[prancing_horse]

C V V ,Reply to your 8:47 post

[THRESHOLD]

Yes - because all that matters is the median outcome of this event = so 50/50. The mean number of tosses required to achieve 8 or 9 in a row is another matter entirely. PROBABILTY THEORY HOLDS THAT ALL EVENTS ARE DISCREET. So unlless one subscribes to some ...fringe notion that everything is predetermined - all that matters is the 50/50.

[G_V_V]

On average the probability is to get 4 single heads and 4 single tails to 1 double heads and 1 double tail in a row. [H][T][H][T][HH][TT] then the probability is to repeat that sequence and then the probability is [HHH][TTT], repeat the whole lot and then get [HHHH][TTTT] and so infinitum, not necessarily in that order but in amount of [sets]. Check my web page. http://stat.awardspace.info/#gamble

[G_V_V]

When you spin [H][T][H][T][H?] the probability to spin a [T] is less than another [HH] If it was always 50/50 the question mark in bracket above would be a TAIL or else the 50/50 concept would be a contradictory term.

[G_V_V]

The total spins in large numbers are close to the 50/50 but the single spins deviate from the 50/50 and like a pendulum swings to both sides of its movement it reverts back again. So as the pendulum swings it develops a trend therefore in the short term when 2,3,4...heads and tails in a row result the spins are no more a 50/50 chance.

[G_V_V]

Because there is a probability theory in the form of a formula we know how many times 2,3,4,5..... times heads and tails in a row will result, therefore we know that when the repeated event happens, which we know MUST happen we also know that the coin must fall more than once on the same side and therefore know that the single spin is not 50/50.

[THRESHOLD]

No. Not at all - the 50/50 is for all sequences ie. for an infinite number of spins. The chances of the last being a T (or an H for that matter) are 50/50. The chances of producing that complete sequence are another matter entirely.

[G_V_V]

Sorry and I respect what you think but I truly think that in the sequence that I have described the chances of getting another Head ([H?][HH]} is greater than getting a Tail.

[THRESHOLD]

FOR ALL SEQUENCES H,T,... yes. For a sequence - no.

[THRESHOLD]

Incidentally - this is not what I think. It is based on probability theory.

[prancing_horse]

CVV,I think you're evading the point, irrespective of the previous spin, the next is 50/50, and no amount of reading your site will change that. I understand cleary what you are saying about sets etc, as I've spent hundreds and I mean hundreds of hours studing (roulette wheel) random numbers 0-36, and there is no system that will beat the house, full stop.So a system has to be devised where the probability what appears next is slightly in your favour to have any chance of break even, let alone win.My system is based on dozens and coloums,the secret limit losses and Know when to cash in, as the longer you play the greater the chances of getting a hiding.I do it because I enjoy the challange, not to get rich.I've seen a number come up twice or three times in a row, and what are the chances of it coming up again the next spin? 1 in 37, nothing more, nothing less. By the way I'm still waiting on the odds of Michael Clarke calling tais at the next toss and losing, 10 to 1 maybe? or 50/50?

[THRESHOLD]

Let me try and simplify this: The probability of each sequence of a given length is the same. ie regardless of your adding an H or a T to any given sequence - the chances of that sequence existing are the same. HH, TT TH, HT each have a 1 in 4 chance of existing.

[G_V_V]

Do you realize that if you spin the coin enough times the probability is that one day you will spin 1 million heads in a row. In the middle of you spinning the million heads you will believe that you have no chance of spinning a tail ever again. Although there are two sides to the coin it will always land on heads. That is the object of a 50/50 chance to reach the time when it will become a 99.999...% chance to land on the same side. That is why when you spin a coin it does not land HTHTHTHTHTHT.....repeatedly, its objective it to reach 100% because you have divided the chance by splitting the coin in two Heads and tails.

[G_V_V]

The probability theory you believe is short sighted.

[G_V_V]

No I believe that two heads and two tails on average only happen one time each in relation to a head a tail a head and a tail. In other words two single heads and two single tails with two heads in a row and two tails in a row. [H][T][H][T][HH][TT] the relation is two to one. Spin a coin yourself 1,000 times and you will see that it become more rare to spin a higher number of heads and tail in a row, this rarity is two to one the lower level than the higher level.

[prancing_horse]

Pointless carrying on, you don't answer the question, you tell me things I already know.You seem to be an intelligent person, but unfortunately also stubborn.Subject closed.

[G_V_V]

There is only a 1 in 494 chance to get 7 heads and 7 tails in a row. Only 1 in 1004 chance to get 8 heads and 8 tails in a row. Only 1 in 2026 chance to get 9 heads and 9 tails in a row. Only 1 in 4072 chance to get 10 heads and 10 tails in a row.

[THRESHOLD]

At this point, I shall assume that you are joking; and leave it at that.

[Kabeer]

Yes, you are correct.. That's what I meant :-) lol thanks!