Probability theory and trading

[SimonPB]

your math is still worng ..

[Rams]

so you sort of "hedged" your futures with shares...did you use a stop loss on the futures?

[G_V_V]

19+18+17+16+15+14+13+12+11+10+9+8+7+6+5+4+3+2+1=190 times 1000=190,000 you calculate a sequence of numbers by adding 1 to the sequence then multiplying the last two numbers in the sequence ie 19 Times 20 = 380 the result is then dividing it by 2 =190. To understand how it works imagine a right angle triangle at the base you put 19 dots above that you put 18 dots and so forth until you get 1 dot at the top. Now you make a copy of the right angle triangle and you flip it over and past it next to the first triangle so it forms a rectangle. You know have 19 dotes down the short side of the rectangle and 20 dotes across the long side of the rectangle. By multiplying the 19 by the 20 you get 380 divide the it by two and you get 190.

[G_V_V]

I sort of exchanged my futures for share.

[Skerp]

Hi Prancing Horse, no, don,t touch commodities, only for the big/smart boys in my opinion. CFD,s on the ALSI. Simple system I can understand.

[prancing_horse]

Michael Clarke the Auzzie captain, before today had lost 8 tosses in a row by calling tails. Today, by the law of averages, the chances of calling tails and finally being correct must be be a lot greater than 50/50.He called tails and lost again, because there are only 2 options,so each for spin there is a 50/50 chance,even though the odds of it happening nine times in a row were heavyly stacked against it happening.Sounds contradictory but what isn't in theory 50/50 is after all 50/50. If he lives to 100 and is still captain, he will call correctly 9 times in a row calling tails.That is the beauty of the madness of rondomness , there is order after all.

[G_V_V]

Here is the link to my web page which I quickly created to explaining a 50/50 chance and the reason why the odds are against a gambler. http://stat.awardspace.info/#gamble

[Skerp]

Prancing Horse, I warned you, you ain't gonna win de argument!

[Wizard]

There are many ways to make money on the market and you need to know what works for you. IÂ’ve been listening to Buffett and I can tell you that he knows nothing of the market movements. What he knows is the golden rules which he uses to buy a share and from then onwards he holds forever and the market over time always goes up. So now that he used other peopleÂ’s money and he made a lot on that strategy and heÂ’s seen as some kind of a super hero!!!