QE

[kwagga]

Goldman Sucks predicts $1 tril - $750 mil has been priced into the markets. What happens if that is a lie and it's much less with the next Fed meeting? They will have a massive short position to leverage off that rumour if the truth is diffent. Is it just me thinking along these lines or is this QE a lost attemp to kick starting a very old chevy V8 without any "gas". The US economy is one in decline and has been for many years. Why can't these people just take the plunge like the Greeks and cut back on spending aggressively. Don't they realize that they're disrupting the monetary system world wide with this constant printing of ever decreasing dollars? QE at this scale can only end up in tears.

[kwagga]

The Chinese are doing the US Greek style anyway; they just don't realize it yet.

[DEP]

My take of this, is that QE2 will be much less than expected, maybe around $400 - $500 billion. When it get announced there will be some disappointment. Expect a sell of in various assets.

[striker]

- Yep I agree - could be the end of Economic World order as we know it. You're right it will end in tears and this wiil wreak havoc in the Markets - I'm sitting on the sideline right now - far too much uncertainty .

[richardw]

No chance I'm long on the day they announce it. Sell the news, I reckon.

[SimonPB]

striker, you sitting out the best run we've had this year ??

[kwagga]

If you're long I guess it's a good idea to hedge the risk with a short as well.

[john_1]

okes it simple the market is going up..either you are in or you not and if you in are set a stop loss.. the rest is just noise..

[SimonPB]

why ?? hedging only makes your broker money .. if the market turns either exit or ignore depending on youur strategy ..

[striker]

- not entirely - sold a chunk last week,selling more this week - my timing may be slightly out,but I know about sell off's and rather safe than sorry - foreign money driving our markets,until a new flavour arrives - seen it all before.

[Quakedog]

Keep on Going, wahoo!! V8 V8!!

[DEP]

Hmmm... based on the comments (sell when everyone else is buying) here we are very near correction time. QE2 is going to bring for tears than joy.

[Fredsed]

QE2, QE3, QE4, QEn... if Unc Sam is going down then there is no lifeboat, except maybe some gold and silver stuff.

[asylum]

ive heard it so many times over the last couple of years, were about to go into a correction, and most times that correction only comes months after, but if you keep telling yourself every month that a correction is coming youll eventually get it right, forget about whether a correction is coming or not, at the moment long is in short is out, until price dictates otherwise, i found over the years i have lost a great deal of opportunities because i was trying to think where the market was going, get in on the ride set stops and wait for the next train. Happy trading.

[FJj]

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[#16]

Yep, asylum you are bang on the money here. We can all sit and predict the onset of further global doom, but as Werner so correctly pointed out late 2008, what if it doesn't happen? What if we really do enter into a new bull market - then you will have lost out on a golden opportunity. You can't predict the future anymore than the best market strategists out there (we have nobel prize lauriates for economics that can't even agree on the future outcome). Treat everything as an opportunity and accept the fact that you will be wrong some times. Will you be right 33% of the time - probably 90% certain of that -so if you win twice as much as you risk, you will have 90% chance of breaking even. Will you be right 50% of the time? probably 50% certain of that outcome, in which case if you are still on the 2*reward per risk, then you will be sitting with a 50% chance of doubling your money. So, 90% chance of at least a breakeven, 50% chance of doubling up, and 10% chance of losing. Keep those figures in your head, and stick to the system. Act on what the price is telling you.

[kwagga]

Long on Imp and short on MTN. Tomorrow that short will bear some fruit, and I suspect that long as well.

[#18]

Sorry Kwagga, but that strategy is completely illogical. if you are long on IMP, then you are long on resources in general, and since these make up a good 60% of the topi, then you by default are long on the topi. So since all stocks trade at a beta to the topi, if the topi is going up, then your stock is going up by virtue of its beta value