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Question for the smart money?

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Namib
Contributor
At 16:51 the ALSI futures stood at 27870, up 117 points. At that stage the US had opened up +/- 70% red. US future indicated that also. FTSE was down around the same at the time. The FTSE closing around -1.7% down. The Dow currently down over 1%. And still.....the ALSI futures closed down 297 points UP at 5:30!! Am I missing something here? What could be the reason for the ALSI futures jumping while all else indicated...and did take a dive? And yes I'm short overnight on topdwq. I always thought the smart money is overseas! Thanks
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20 REPLIES 20
RDB
Super Contributor
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Namib
Contributor
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RDB
Super Contributor
yes, since 27832 this AM, last overnight short with target of 26,500 was sold to early yesterday @ 27,800 then market fell to 27,500 where I went long, sold b4 close yesterday, second DOW short since last night taken out few minutes ago on trailing stop
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Namib
Contributor
And so the plot thickens...best of luck!
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john_1
Super Contributor
the whole day there was dumb money (large funds) buying but the spikes are all the nervous shorts trying to bank profits causing a short cover rally. The market is showing no clear dirrection an as we are right up against resistance there is a lot of churn taking place.
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RDB
Super Contributor
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Namib
Contributor
Thanks John...must say u'r a brave man calling the big funds dumb money! :0)......still does nor explain to me the exuberance on the ALSI futures after hours. Certainly there is a bigger picture which in the short term does not warrant that abandon! Or maybe u gys just shower it off...Like your next president?
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john_1
Super Contributor
Dude firstly 97% of funds underperform the index... so that makes them dumb because one trade with satrix and you at least would match the index..the only dumber money is the blokes who put their hard earned cash into the fund in the first place. As for the rally as soon as the shorts( by definition the most agressive market participants feel that up is were the easy money is. They start to buy( cover to exit) causing the market to move up, as it moves more bail. It is self fueling.
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Namib
Contributor
Thanks John...will chew on that for a moment. I,m afraid I do not have that insight into the market. I do however tend to be influenced by - shall we call it the bigger picture - meaning the global performance. I guess that is what confused me tonight. Thanks
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john_1
Super Contributor
Truth is all those who sold got it wrong short was the right place to be. that is as it stands but lets see how the dow closes.
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Not applicable
I have a theory that might explain : Close - out looming on the 20th and.............DIVIDENDS PAYABLE SOON>. theory only.
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Namib
Contributor
Thanks G. Still a long way to go though, imo. Unless maybe the resourses still have lots of legs...US interest rates still to drop...dollar to fall...Gold etc. up and since resourses dictate the JSE, along with Sasol on the back of rocketing oil...who knows, maybe the smart money is right after all? Still short though(not much choice at the mo..mmm) Will be interesting to see the Nikkei et al.
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Not applicable
u right, but i do think the (US and Poms) markets running out of steam, so my guess is within the next week or so the drop will come, not big, but in line with these 2 markets. At the moment the ALSI is running ahead of itself. Dont know why but i get the feeling its artificial and counter - everything it should be doing still short overnight like yesterday, hoping the DOW will close down 350 points.lol.
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Namib
Contributor
Mooi man! I'm with u all the way on that one! Down 74 points at the mo....only 280 to go! :o))
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mbk
Contributor
Namibian boy, you think too much and worry about too many things. But if it works for you then do it
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Not applicable
We got trouble tomorrow. Hopefully bail @ the 09h00 low!!!
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Namib
Contributor
Funny....that's what my dad said.... that was before I gave him a Lodge for his birthday. Naaa...u'r right, I worry too much.
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Namib
Contributor
Dow sliding....105 pts. Think the eastern markets will make or break.
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Not applicable
Friggin hope its a massive break!!!
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