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Rates change 5 Feb

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Not applicable
So - what's the consensus for the rates announcement that's due next week? Down 50 points?
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32 REPLIES 32
Shaun_Siddall
Super Contributor
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platsak
Super Contributor
Banks flying as if its a 1%. Problably just 50.
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barry_1
Super Contributor
unfortunately u are probably correct,i wish that they would cut by at least one,good for prop,financial,shops etc....i think inflation has dropped in real terms to around nine prercent already....the figures they use are always about two month old!
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john_1
Super Contributor
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CrownA
Super Contributor
Tito has no balls - 50 pts only
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Brazen
Super Contributor
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
err, 300 up or down ?
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john_1
Super Contributor
she is just counting her smarties again..
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Theater_Cat
Super Contributor
It should be 100 basis points, but MPC conservative and will only grant 50bp. Watch the Banks tank then!
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platsak
Super Contributor
You think I should exit my long positions on banks. Had quite a ride on SBK from R71 to now. I think there is still a bit of feelgood left when barclays and absa report in the next week or so.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
why will banks tank on 50 points ? especially seeing as 50 is currently the consensus and as such priced in ?
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Brazen
Super Contributor
john be half right. It was Chuckles. And that's now my official 5 minute record. For now anyway.
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Theater_Cat
Super Contributor
They are pricing in 100bp - that is why they will tank.
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Not applicable
Hi Simon, Cees Bruggemans article on Moneyweb implies that 100 points priced into banks at the moment. But he does also motivate for 50pt cut only
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
but why would the market price 100 pts, when the market consensus is for 50 ?
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
but what I don;t understand is how the consensus (which is the market) can be 50, then everybody says it is pricing in 100?
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Theater_Cat
Super Contributor
I can almost guarantee you that the Banks are not on fire because of 50bp expectation, but 100bp. Besides numerous participants have changed their forecast to 100bp now that cpix came in lower than expected. give it a day or so and the 'market' will adjust its 'consensus' - in the meantime the banks are rallying on 100bp.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
almost guarantee ???? cpix was lower by all of 0.1%, hardly thrilling .. and why the rally now for a rate cut .. why not last week, next week ?? an another theory, last week UK banks were losing 40% in afternoon .. would this not maybe have out pressure on our banks .. this week they all looking better .. could that not help our banks ?? see, one move many theories ..
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Theater_Cat
Super Contributor
Keep watching the consensus - there will soon be talk of 100bp by majority of participants to census. Sure, there are many contributing factors, but this is a primary driver.
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