Well TC if your that convinced are you gonna short banks then? So you are saying yes the consensus is 50 pts but the idiots are trading 100pts. I thought consensus meant "the majority agree". What you are saying is yes the majority agree on 50pts but the "other" majority are trading 100 pts .. a little confused.
I thought 'consensus' is what economists predict and that the market prices it's own expectation separate from consensus? Hence 50 and 100bps opinions. Oh, and on the CPI... is it really so much lower? We're like the Yanks now, we fudge and smooth inflation even better now with the 'new method'. I don't think Tito is convinced and will stick to his 50bps mantra
I wouldn't be surprised if what analysts are saying is out of kilter with how their companies are investing their money. Also, a few local analysts and economists won't affect international companies. From today's "Bank Account", Credit Suisse: "we are still concerned about earnings downgrades given that we are between 5-10% below consensus on average for the next two forecast years and (2) we believe that the market is being too optimistic on interest rate cuts, with the bond market pricing in c400bps more cuts, against our forecast of 200-250bps" So trading differently to the supposed consensus. In the end, the only real consensus is the price, no?
Tito has stated in the past that the MPC will move rates by 50bps at a time....BUT, at its December meeting, two of the MPC's seven members argued for a full percentage point rate cut. My money's on 50bps.