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Dow Theory says,"Watch those Dow Transports,shipmates !"...the Transports have broken the uptrend line since Sep2010.The Dow Jones itself carries on up.How about correlations?The Shanghai exchange is seeing supply since Nov2010. It has broken correlation with the Commodity-based AUSSIE All Ords,which is still on its Sep2010 Uptrend Line.Emotions ? The VIX is at at a bad place for this rally..a place called Near-complete-Complacency.And the most obvious one of all....look where PRICE is on the Indexes vs the 200-day line.Conclusion:Have Fear,when the Herd is Greedy.
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...and yeah, the Baltic Dry Index has dumped by 50%.That's right, 50%.
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Is the market overvalued - sure, it is being driven by belief that teh growth rates will improve. Is the Shipping index still in trouble, sure again, but shipping has structural problems right now because of massive oversupply of ships, so things are a bit skewed. A better measure would be shipping volumes, which is not so easy to measure. If you want to see a correction / retracement, then the belief that growth will improve needs to be shattered. If you want to see a bear market again, then a crisis will be needed - one that will require further borrowing. If you take Talieb's argument that the US is borrowed to the max, then the conclusion is that the next crisis will spell game over. But no crisis = longs only
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Looks like a shooting star alsi 1 hr chart,at trendline resistance of what looks like a expanding(broadening triangle).30000 on the alsi futures was the 127% fib level of previous wave down. expanding triangles usually appear at market tops.
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Well,old chap.The word Crisis is...everywhere.Broken States in the USA.Broken countries in the EU.Middle East social chaos.Nevermind, the OTC $1000 Trillion monster held between the 6 major banks of the world..Just my 10cents, etc...## Back in chart-world, I also notice that the Rand is not tracking the Euro,since 2011 began.The Rand will of course, like 2008, be the barometer of change.Why? Coz it's one of the most vunerable of Currencies on the planet.And the hot-money may be wondering if they've squeezed as much out of the Carry-trade margin,as possible.re>>SA.In 2008, they nailed it for a world record.Worst-performing currency on the planet back then.Just watch the Rand.Simple,innit ?
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...it's Tuesday.It's obvious.It's coming.A flat tyre.Whoever shorts the TOPI and times it right....what a Boykie ! Moolah time.Can you crack THIS code ?
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Super Contributor
Only the commodity plays are running. The rest of the market does not look good. AND with commodity prices where they are - one can't hold out too much hope for the industrials. The market action is beginning to look like late '07 again. It makes me very uneasy.
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China interest rate up 25 points
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Super Contributor
The trend is asking you to bend! Is it still your friend?
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Super Contributor
The only thing that matters is price is up...the greatest long rallies are built on fear of a collapse.....stay long till price tells you that you are wrong. I must say that I take my hat off to you guys who have the balls to hold positions overnight in this market.....we only have a 30min overlap with the dow....what happens if it crashes at 10pm sa time? Anyways, as always may the charts be with you.
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yes ninja, but with stop losses in place. surely those longs will be stoped out. wont they?
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Super Contributor
no njabulo, they wont because the marjet will open below your stop and fall further.....
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Super Contributor
Fear, Ninja,FEAR. If the stop loss was guaranteed(even if market opens below stop loss), then FEAR would be removed; Trade in the Zone!
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Super Contributor
Rams, I trade with guarenteed stops on IG.....does ost offer guarenteed stops on index futures or cfd's or ssf's? If so then njabulo you have nothing to worry about. If they don't offer guarenteed stops then my sentiment stands.
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Valued Contributor
guarenteed stops .. more costs .. trade a liquid product and stops no worry .. sure sometimes you miss them .. but sometimes you stop out higher ..
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Super Contributor
Simon I couldn't agree more....i omly use guarenteed stops on the rare occasion im in overnight, otherwise liquidity means i never need them. Just replying to rams rambling.
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Super Contributor
Just had 4 of my MA,s cross over (2 pairs each) into bear territory!
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Valued Contributor
and how long you been short ??
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Super Contributor
Since Monday! Pre-empting my sigmals is certainly my undoing!!!
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Valued Contributor
dude .. you way beyond pre-empting .. you got a bias the size of the solar system and worse is that you trade that bias .. it has been your downfall, repeatedly .. sure the world will end, and sure it may happen tomorrow .. but in the mean time - trade the friggin price ..
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