The research report on AMS (under buy and sell) is absolutely spot on. I'm surprised it's taken analysts so long to figure this one out. Auntie Carol has done one thing properly... she's managed to gut hundreds of years of solid middle management experience right out of Anglo. I'm not at all surprised by Anglo groups price moves but I am surprised it's taken so long for analysts to catch on. In my work I regularly deal with many mines on the ground and let me tell you that when it comes to lack of discipline in middle and junior management then AMS is in a league of it's own (they actually have some pretty good middle level managers except these people get no leadership and they have no power to execute). At HQ level, well, the research says it all, a bunch of inexperienced moegoes who know little about PT and even less about mining. When PT was trading +2k USD it was easy to hide the strategic deficiencies but now that times is hard the lack of leadership and effective management experience is going to stand out like a clown at a funeral. I have never seen a company that can waste money like AMS does. They should go take lessons from Ashanti which in my opinion is one of the best run and well disciplined companies in the world
so why does the %^&#%^ share price keep rising? i have been trying to short it for a couple of days now, in light of platinum mines elsewhere taking a caning. Its not like platinum itself is doing any wonderful moves, even in rand terms
Simon? hehehe, and a caning it is then and a caning it will remain until they get some experienced miners to run the company (except punters don't seem to realise that). Now imagine if Mike Solomon could run that lot? I reckon he'd fire at least two thirds of the management. Skaaptjop? I couldn't answer you as I don't touch AMS, only used it as a reference for WEZ and that only until WEZ anounced plans to take over AMS 37% stake. I wont buy AMS until they get competent management. Georgem? I'm kicking myself this morning. I knew I should have gone long the USD yesterday at 1.28 and I hesitated. Well, the EURUSD has nosedived overnight all the way to 1.2480, made a 50% retrace and now trading 1.2580 to 90 on the 38.2% fibo. It looks like it will range 1.2550 to 1.2650 today. However, it all hinges on the DOW. If the DOW drops then the USD will gain. Right now it's sideways so I don't expect drama yet. The fact though is that mediom term (1 to 6 months) I definitely expect the EURUSD to go to 1.20 and even 1.16 but longer term (6 to 18 months) the USD is going to get decimated
Nope, resource prices in Rand terms have an inverse relationship with the USD. The stronger the USD the lower the Dollar prices for metals and vice versa. Remember when USD was at 1.60 to the EUR? That's when we saw PT at over USD2k. However, this theory only holds (for us here in ZA) as long as the ZAR also remains weak relative to the USD. Weak USD = higher commodity prices and weak ZAR = more Rands per ounce. The unknown is the supply/demand factor as that could well and truly bugger up the works. Let's hope China comes to the rescue?
Neville Nicolau definitely has the experience and the right stuff to make a change but he is going to have a long and hard job of it. Fortunately he comes from a frugal and disciplined company but he stepped right into a circus and he has yet to show any results. Unfortunately for him he inherited about 5 years of really stupid decision making and he's not going to be able to fix it overnight. And now he has to contend with market conditions that are going to force AMS to finally take production costs seriously. I think his biggest task is going to be his ability to impose a culture of staying power and discipline in AMS. Over the past 5 years they've had so much staff turnover, lost so much experience, that there's a vacuum that cannot be easily filled