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SAB propping us up here

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So SAB speculation on the InBev bid is clearly holding up the broader futures market, but I would seriously caution against any further uptick. There are a huge number of hurdles still to overcome. The bid is one thing, but how on earth are they going to overcome the US anti-trust hurdles? Miller-Coors has a 26% market share in the US - and the combined entity would end up with almost 70% of the US beer market - no ways that is going to fly. Currencies too seem to be brushing this off. You would expect such a big deal to have a capital inflow into SA - which is good for the rand - but our currency hasn't budged at all. My prognosis, we will get an offer made - settling the price more or less where we are now, it will get rejected, and a higher price will be offered - so maybe a slight increase in SAB pricing from here (10% maybe?). Thereafter, you will have the best short setup you could ever hope for. While they spend months sorting out the regulatory approvals, across multiple global domains, the rumour will be off the table, and the facts will remain. The price will slowly dwindle resulting in a binary event of sorts 1) you get bounced back to your original price or 2) you make 20% overnight when the announcement gets made that the deal is off.
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9 REPLIES 9
Russ
Super Contributor
Speaking of the US I still think the Dow is cruising for a heavy bruising one of these days. I won't even think about going long in this market yet.
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Preston
Super Contributor
My theory, If SAB/Inbev offer get rejected, then these @$$ will prop up the resources shares esp the like of KUMBA(KIO). These guys are play a very dangerous game. They could end up with no jobs soon.
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suki
Super Contributor
SABMiller said to have snubbed AB InBev offer.SABMiller rejected an informal takeover offer from Anheuser-Busch InBev that it considered too low, according to people familiar with the matter.FIN24
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eric13
Contributor
Yes, agree Skaap... stop loss triggered, out at R757....and ok with it
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Preston
Super Contributor
SAB rejected initial offer and for some odd reason KIO is up 3%. Let me guess the market will find some reason why Kumba is up today.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
InBev back with R864
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kwagga
Super Contributor
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gamma
Contributor
Rejected yet again ...
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Preston
Super Contributor
And KIO goes up yet again
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