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Searching for the Environmental Trigger to the Second Great Depression

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HateGauteng
Super Contributor
Currently, the driver of the world markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Index is repeating a long term pattern last seen before and during the Great Depression (1929 -1940's) and consequent World War II. However, there is a missing piece of the puzzle. During the period characterised as the Great Depression, there was a concurrent environmental phenomenon know as the Dust Bowl (1930 - 1940's). In the modern (1999 till present) emerging pattern on the Dow Jones the environmental aspect is still missing or perhaps unrecognised. The market represents the collective intelligence of billions of participants and discounts everything. Was the crash of 1929 in anticipation of the dust bowl? With global climate change does the modern market anticipate another natural disaster(s) of the order of magnitude of the dust bowl? Does the modern market hold any clues to future environmental change?
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28 REPLIES 28
Not applicable
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Blik
Super Contributor
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Harathke
Regular Contributor
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dust bowl is already here...GULF OIL CRISES! Watch that space, cause it is far from over. The next 2 weeks are gonna be key as they implement "top kill" which I suspect is not gonna work! Amazing how few people really grasp the ramifications to humanity as a whole about whats going on there....
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john_1
Super Contributor
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Africa standing up and saying " We will now kick out all the dictators and work together to make Africa an economic powerhouse" - Ya man we will!! I will fall off my chair and so will the rest of the world causing a meltdown out of sheer shock.
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HateGauteng
Super Contributor
Yep, also giving the BP spill much thought. The Gulf stream determines the climate in Europe. Wonder what a layer of oil on the water would do to evaporation and the European climate. Not to mention beaches.
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Not applicable
John, there are basically two scenario's: 1. The BP one: Everything is under control and proceeding according to plan. Pressure is building up nicely on the BOP indicating well casing integrity is intact. Hence when they pump in the "cement" next week...well should be killed. The problem I have with this is that it's coming from the same people who initially told us that the leak was 1000b/day, yet doc's submutted to EPA later indicated 52000b/day. Their daily technical briefings lack any technical info that outside engineers can interpret. There is a media blackout and no one is allowed within 50 miles of the site and all we have are the live ROV feeds....and the list goes on and on... 2. Matt Simmons version: The current blowout is not the main one but is rather a failed attempted relief well to a much bigger gusher 7 miles from site (basically an oil volcano) and that basically we are all p#$%ed! Now although he's is/was a highly respected oil player his theory only appeals to the "end is near" crowd....because he refuses to disclose the location of this mystery well as well as his source or any technical info thereof. My personal research did indicate that BP did indeed apply for 2 drilling permits about 7 miles apart and that they did experience problems in Feb this year (2 months before current blowout). What problems, the extent or which well (if 2 that is), we do not know. Being an engineer I am leaning to wards the first crowd but that said, BP's and the US Gov secrecy on this whole issue is very worrisome. I hope it can be attributed to just pure greed as the fine they are liable to pay is measured in barrels leaked per day, and not due to something more sinister (like the movie deep impact!...lol).I can go on and on as I've done extensive research on this these last two months but this will just bore most. To summize, I HOPE AND PRAY BP is being truthful cause if Mr Simmons theory is even vaquely correct, the webots predictions of 1.289 BILLION people dying this year may not be far off indeed! To hell with the markets, we will not have a functioning planet!adios
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Not applicable
Here's something I wrote last month for some mates living along the gulf coast just to scare the ***** outta them....must add after good few glasses of wine!! That said a lot of it is possible, hence my concern for them albeit disguised as dramatics! "POSSIBLE EXTINCTION LEVEL EVENT IN PROGRESS!! Basically we've always believed oil is formed from decayed organic matter (plants, animals, etc) but in the 90's the Russians discovered that there is a much deeper source of oil.....deep within the earth's mantle. They called this oil abiotic oil which was formed by the physical compression of hydrogen, carbon dioxide, etc at GREAT pressure. This oil then leached higher up the mantle to give us our pockets of oil that we've been drilling for the last 100 or so years. The Russians on discovering this and after successfully tapping into this "almost infinite" source went on to drill more than 300 such wells......but all ON LAND, where the crust would provide stability, etc. I personally believe that even they were wrong to try this as nature is an example of perfection and if oil is that deep, its probably there for a reason....maybe to serve as a lubricant for the earth's tectonic plates...who knows? Why were'nt we lemmings told about this bountiful source of oil?.....maybe cause it would cause the immediate demise of one of the most powerful complexes on earth....the oil cooperations....once again who knows? Despite warnings of dire consequences BP together with the corrupt greedy political elite went ahead and drilled 22000 feet into the Gulf sea bed into the belly of "mother earth" to tap into one of the largest oil gas reserves ever discovered. once they bore thr' km's of rock that kept this resorvoir in check, they experienced a pressure that current human technology could not handle, it was *****ing a giant balloon and the oil and gas just shot out at a pressure of 60000psi/ sq. inch causing the Deepwater Horizon platform to blow up instantaneously and kill 11 on board. BP knew from day one that basically the point of no return has come and that there is nothing in their *****nal of technology to seal this off (except maybe a nuke which is exactly what the Russians used when something similiar happened on land years ago). Now I believe and this is conjecture on my behalf as well as scientists much more knowledgable than myself that the entire sea bed is rupturing and pissing oil and gas everywhere, not just at wellhead as BP would have us believe. Basically they is a huge bubble of methane and oil pushing up against the seafloor causing it to bend and lead to certain "tipping point" when it will blow through with a force of biblical proportion. I say conjecture above because BP and the US military have enforced a no go zone around the entire region including no investigations, photos or even interviews with workers. they have also refused help from the Dutch, Russia and other countries. To explain the ramifications of the above scenario is something even Hollywood could'nt dream up! Once the Methane bubble breaks thr' it will immediately sink everything including fish within a 50 mile radius as the water will lose it's bouancy and become oxygen depleted. (this was happening for years on a smaller natural scale...hence this region is called the BERMUDA TRIANGLE!).Any ignition of the escaped methane in the atmosphere (like lightening) wll cause a literal firestorm that will take out the entire gulf region. This will be quickly followed by a tsunami about 200 foot high that will literally wash over Florida. Thats the immediate effects....long term we will be all screwed as this methane and oil makes its way around the earths oceans and airways causing acid rain, dead oceans, u name it! Since the explosion on the 20th April, Lindsay Louhan has got more press coverage than this disaster by mainstream media and I kept on asking myself why? Thinking about it if I were in power and knew the above....would I tell anyone.....NOOOO! Because that would cause an instantaneous global market crash, pandemonium and god knows what else. But what really scared the ***** outta me was when I discovered that basically the entire US Navy based in the gulf is being moved to Costa Rica to help fight the war on drugs.....yeh drugs!!!....not Mexico, Columbia but little known Costa Rica and all this in the middle of the greatest envrironmental disaster known to man. Funny thing is I did'nt find a shred of news of this troop movement on BBC and CNN.......WHY!!!!! BTW looking as the map, Costa Rica wiould be perfect for protection against a possible calamity but not too far from continental US. Its palusible that the world from now onwards (if there still is one left!) will be divided into 2 periods...pre-spill and post spill. You got to admire the poetry of the whole situation though, wherein oil which forms the basis of our consumeristic lives will serve as the catalyst to propel some of us to a new level of consiousness, which is what 2012 is really about."
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vurt
Contributor
They should turn that into a movie. It would be way better than "2012" was.
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warhippo
Super Contributor
My take is that BP can't say our do anything in Gulf as it is now without the approval of US government. But here are other Matt Simmons Sensational claims: 1. Use of a small bore nuclear device is the "only option" to stop the flow of oil. ( Yes, a banker who doesn't know what fuzzy logic is being taken seriously on the issue of using nukes in the Gulf of Mexico.) 2. BP would be insolvent by July 8, 2010. He has also stated several times that the stock is going to zero. A prediction of insolvency by July 8th was ridiculous. Simmons has then obviously also shorted BP stock, so some of this may be wishful thinking on his part. 3. The gulf states need to be evacuated.( Can you imagine evacuating 20 million people? )
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the_stig
Occasional Contributor
Well Dinen, thanks for clearing that up for us, so, beers anybody?
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striker
Super Contributor
Stig - love your sense of humour,but I wonder if this is a laughing moment ? Dinen raises some scary issues and I wonder if our lives will simply carry on without any side effects or consequences ?
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john_1
Super Contributor
Dinnen.. I love you interlect, and if what you say about oil being a natural lubricant..thats fantastic. Personally the whole dead tree thing never seemed to make sense to me and this explanation of gas convertion is a much more plausable idea... The idea of the whole ocean about to explode.. that does not seem to hold quite so much water (oil) ..However I would like to suggest that if more rigs in the gulf start to go up in flames.. go for the bunkers. The basic problem here as I understand it is that BP can cap the thing but delayed because capping it meant it would be unavailable in the future. As for the global impact...it has not yet been felt but I am sure it will. It may just serriously effect the gulf stream enough to create a period of servere cold making global warming a thing of the past..and serriously improve the sking in france.. to every story there is a potential for creativity. Just be careful that the drugs you are smoking don't cloud you vissions with deep paranoia. And most of all dont believe in your own fantasies however colourful. In the same vain don't believe anything untill its been officialy denied!
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the_stig
Occasional Contributor
Hi Striker - maybe my comment was a little crass but in my 20 years mining experience, when a major accident occurs and people are killed, it is normally the result of 2 issues - poor management and/or people taking shortcuts, in the BP case, my money is on the later. When people start talking about the Bermuda Triangle, small bore nuclear weapons or 200ft tsunamis two things enter my mind - 1)If true, there isn't a great deal I can do about either and 2)Where can I buy property in the Drakensberg (2012)? - Vrrmm Vrrmm
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
surely you jest ?? people are throwing out end time visions statements, and we must now all quake ?? an with no disrespect to dinen (who i have known for some 10 years), he has been a end time visionist forever ..
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3JN2
Frequent Contributor
Previously the USSR and USA adhered to the MAD policy - Mutually Assured Destruction. If you nuke me, I will destroy you. From what I can gather watching overseas news, Iran seems hell bent on nuclear weapons. Unlike other nuclear countries, once they have them they will use them as terrorists demonstrated in 9/11. First target is Israel and/or USA then UK. My concern is the London Stock Exchange on which JSE trading is based. What happens when the LSE goes down for an extended period - for whatever reason?
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
you revert to your store of bottle water an pumkin seeds ..
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warhippo
Super Contributor
Yes guys and also Harry Camping's "Day Of Rapture" is approaching - to be precise on the 21st of May 2011. So lets relax in meantime and enjoy the fruit of the vine!!
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