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Sell in May and go away

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Super Contributor
Nigeria, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Uruguay, Bolivia....? How did their currencies fare compared to their peers?
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Not applicable
Well, if you must - Nigerian Naira - not a good example because of government pegging. Official rate means nothing, as it is 50% less than the black market rate - Kenya Shilling - on a par with SA's currency, free floated and performing roughly the same over the last 10yrs give or take a few percentage points. Zimbabwe - OK, too extreme for comparative purposes. Uruguay - also tried pegging, but their currency is performing on a par with SA's too, and Bolivia - they have actually strengthened. But in all seriousness though, it isn't as though international trading desks are trading the La Paz stock exchange, or the Bolivar USD pair in any real volume.
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Not applicable
Really, Trump / Hillary weakening the dollar - that is what you are leading with? So increased capital outflows in the world's second largest economy, US interest rate increases, roughly $7 trillion government bonds now in negative yield (and being sold off), persistently low US inflation - none of these factors count towards dollar strength? I thought they taught this stuff in CFA classes?
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Regular Contributor
@skaap, Do you believe that SA will be downgraded on Friday . Yes or No? No long winded over the top MBA answer, a simply Yes or No?
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Super Contributor
@skaap, Sorry, posted from the wrong account. Question still remains to be answered.
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Super Contributor
To my knowledge the BOB is in its umpteenth iteration and has devalued 1000X+ The ZIM is delightful. The Naira is now unpegged and has devalued by 1000X. The KES replaced the pound and imploded under Kenyatta. Even if you are prepared to link the unavailable original to the current KES - it has devalued by 150X. There are numerous other examples. Each reacting to specific internal factors and largely politically motivated. So that - puts paid to the theory that all emerging currencies are equal! They are mostly rubbish though, I'll give you that. If, for example, Zuma were to embark on a large scale un/semi-compensated expropriation programme - you'll wish you were in Brazilian Real.
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Valued Contributor
prune in june and don't be a swoon ?? I not very good at this poetry thingy
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Occasional Contributor
I would regard those as frontier markets, with economies much less diverse than South Africa, much more reliant on external financing. The thing that you have to realize is that we have very well developed capital markets in South Africa - something all those countries listed don't, additionally we have a significant local institutional asset based that needs to match liabilities in ZAR - something all those countries listed don't. Hence the majority of Gov financing is covered by local institutions. Our % of hard currency debt to local is also relatively insignificant. (As an aside, yes, I know that we have large current account deficits that need to financed) That being said, ZAR should be compared to other large EM currencies like MXN, BRL, RUB, TRY which are a lot more liquid and traded as proxies for the whole of EM, not the Naira. Look at these on a graph going back 10 years - same trend??? I think so. The effect of USD strength is a tidal wave that washes over any local "significant" events, an in many cases is actually an indirect trigger for many of them. BTW - have a look at what has happened to other EM currencies after the actual downgrade event.
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Occasional Contributor
Will be interesting to see which event on Friday has a bigger effect on the currency if they are opposite in nature - hopefully not both negative!!!
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Super Contributor
Emerging market' shmerging market - a term designed to capture investors' interest. We are a minnow. Even Brazil is twice our size. Our political environment is tinder to the anarchist's match. Our economy is in a tailspin and the Rand will probably follow. I bet with the odds when it comes to my money. NULL Public Archive 240481 3 2016-06-01 12:21:40.617 Re:Sell in May and go away 1073066743 240422 240422 0 240422 1 And in July the shares will fly. NULL Public Archive 240482 3 2016-06-01 12:23:53.567 Re:Re:Sell in May and go away 1073030541 240422 240475 0 240422,240475 2 winner off twitter ==>> Buy soon in June and watch your stocks go to the moon. NULL Public Archive 240483 3 2016-06-01 12:34:38.993 Re:Sell in May and go away 1073066743 240422 240422 0 240422 1 Keeps getting better. How about... Get your witts off twitter and buy soon in June before your shares become a prune. NULL Public Archive 240484 3 2016-06-01 14:15:55.673 Re:Sell in May and go away 1073029835 240422 240422 0 240422 1 I hope you guys are better at trading than at poetry. NULL Public Archive 240485 5 2016-06-01 14:23:23.170 Re:Re:sab 1073088011 240472 240473 0 240472,240473 2 when is the vote NULL World affairs & economy 240486 3 2016-06-01 14:33:10.670 Re:Sell in May and go away 1073066743 240422 240422 0 240422 1 Not much going on in the market for me. Thought I'll try my hand at some poetry. Don't worry. I won't quit my day job yet. NULL Public Archive 240487 3 2016-06-01 14:39:01.823 Re:Re:Sell in May and go away 1073056037 240422 240484 0 240422,240484 2 Russ, if you want a crazy equity trade, then I will suggest buying 1500 ppc at R9.20. ( your choice) NULL Public Archive 240488 5 2016-06-01 15:31:24.680 Re:sab 1073088011 240472 240472 0 240472 1 technically looks like a short NULL World affairs & economy 240489 6 2016-06-01 16:12:07.577 Webinars 1073157983 NULL NULL 1 NULL NULL Just a quick question... Is there a website, other than OST, where I can download webinars regarding basically anything on share trading? NULL Beginners corner 240490 6 2016-06-01 16:15:03.647 Re:Webinars 1073027800 240489 240489 0 240489 1 Just one lap - Simon's website NULL Beginners corner 240491 6 2016-06-01 16:19:02.683 Re:Webinars 1073157983 240489 240489 0 240489 1 Yes I am working thru them, but I want a site where I can download them and watch them at home because I don't have uncapped WiFi at home so I must abuse the works WiFi NULL Beginners corner 240492 6 2016-06-01 16:45:40.763 Re:Re:Webinars 1073030541 240489 240491 0 240489,240491 2 youtube will let you download for watching later when off line NULL Beginners corner 240493 6 2016-06-01 16:46:27.550 Re:Webinars 1073088011 240489 240489 0 240489 1 interesting word download",its all streaming now. I have streaming services for almost everything, from my photalbum, to music to movies... I also never use a USB drive anymore. But you need more than just uncapped, you need fibre.
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Super Contributor
You might just get a good relief rally, Preston, maybe back towards R11. I had to smile at Traders Corner technical analysis (on this site). On 16th May they wrote: "The break up through R15.00 should now see a move towards the 200 day moving average which sits at R16.20". Now 2 weeks later it is at R9.46!They have brought out another report today where they suggest more caution and also point out that PPC last traded at this level in 2003!I guess the downgrade by S and P of their company debt could be classed as a black swan event for PPC which wasn't reflected in the charts?
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Super Contributor
Russ, I did nibble by buying 1500 PPC at R9.20. Stop loss is @R8.90.Bought this purely to test a theory, Thus far 2.8% up.
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Super Contributor
early post, trades keeping you awake?
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Super Contributor
Well spotted Rams, Sold PPC today. Whenever I run more than 10km on the threadmill, my sleeping pattern go out of sync. Not sure why?
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Super Contributor
No harm in taking profit, but today was a good day for ppc. I think it might well still rally further. I don't hold any but it does look tempting.
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Super Contributor
Russ, yes, it might rally to R11, but I rather wait for more information about the right issues.
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