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Super Contributor
Can Mur really be tanking this badly? Is this not starting to look oversold? Interim results coming out next week.
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9 REPLIES 9
Regular Contributor
Bought 200 in late 80's for R800. Forgot about them, found the certificate in Aug08, frantically tried to dematerialise when trading above R20,000 - missed out. Now I plan to put them away for another few years I think.
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Not applicable
saash...u gotta realise that when the real idiot talking heads like that guy from Sasfin ...yes Shapiro thats his name started recommending MUR and the other constructions cause they were cheap it was a sell signal...BTW have u noticed just how premiscious these guys are when it comes to channels? they have talked enough ***** they realize they need to find a new audience
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Super Contributor
Chartist. Im starting to share your opinion of these talking heads. It unfortunately took me about 2 years to realise that they seem to blab what is in their own, their companies or their industries interests and/or what is the current hot general perception. Thing is I suspect a lot of it is done on an subconcious level.
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Highlighted
Super Contributor
Yeah, almost all of them. They've been talking up the market since this started and losing everyone's money for them. Same with property - it's always the time to buy. I have a plan to start measuring them up against their predictions. I registered wagtracker.com, but I've been a bit busy to use it :)
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Not applicable
And then Simon brings a "contrarian" investor onto his radio show that says, surprise, surprise, markets will rise soon. I think all these economists love to think of themselves as contrarian without having an idea of what the definition of the term is. Sorry Simon, I can't let go of that one. Good show with J Rom yesterday evening. You guys sounded surprisingly neutral on gold for a change :)
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Not applicable
Add BAW to that long list of shares. Cheap below R100, cheap below R60 and still even cheaper below R40. I mean ffs, it would have been a lot cheaper to have given granny your cash to keep under the bed. What about that one guy on Summit that was punting LBT at R130, now today even cheaper at R50.
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Super Contributor
No man - but this is getting rediculous. I think I'll start buying at about R17!
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alleycat
Contributor
Report taken from Moneyweek. The South African construction industry is in the doldrums. Most shares in the sector have fallen by more than 50% since August 2008- and by more than 60% since their all-time highs Q42007. The slump has left shareholders slightly bemused. How can companies with full order books (running into billions of rand) and geographically diverse operations fall out of favour so quickly? We can answer this question by taking a look at construction projects worldwide. On the domestic front we've just heard that new building plans passed have slumped to the lowest level since 1986. It's a statistic that seems to contradict the news flow from the industry. As we mentioned earlier, most of the country's construction firms have long `to do' lists - enough major projects to keep them busy for the next three to five years. And finance minister Trevor Manuel has once again committed government to massive infrastructure expenditure in his 2009 Budget. Who should you believe? We'd believe everyone. Yes - building plans passed are at the lowest level since 1986. Yes - government remains committed to major infrastructure upgrades. And yes - the construction companies' order books are full. The bubble is going to burst when these projects get canned! This scenario has already played out on the international construction front. As the sub-prime contagion washes over the Middle East - particularly Dubai - a number of multi-billion dollar projects are being delayed or shelved. And companies like Group Five Holdings (JSE: GRF) which tendered for and won a number of projects in the region, have watched a huge chunk of their offshore order book evaporate. Commenting on the groups latest interim results, chief executive Mike Upton say the group "substantially replaced the R4bn orders cancelled in Dubai with South African public works! The company has a secured order book of "R13bn as at 16th February 2009, with further awards of almost R2bn imminent." In the six months to December 2008 Group Five increased revenue by 33% to R6bn with 60% earned in South Africa. Operating profit for the period was R377m and both earnings and headline earnings per share were considerably higher. At 2700c per share the company boasts a price-to-earnings ratio (to June 2009) of 5.76 times and a dividend yield of 4.61%. Can we ignore construction stocks at current valuations? You have to make the decision on the balance of facts. If you believe the long-term order book won't be further affected by cancellations and delays, then you'd be crazy not to get involved. But the more prudent investor will know that the construction stocks haven't seen the worst yet. For example, Group Five witnessed a 62% contraction in its property development revenue on the back of a weak residential market. The group says it will shift focus from residential to commercial developments; but we're concerned the shift might coincide with a recession-led commercial collapse. Under existing conditions it may be safer to play a `wait-and-see' game.
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Pots
Contributor
Noticed that strong downside resistance at around R33-R35 rand. It was recovering (albeit slowly) until yesterday, when it got whacked almost 8% on high volume. Does anyone know whether someone dumped M&R yesterday. 2day it seems to have clawed back a little bit
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