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So nobody has words for that dow close

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Super Contributor
Hopefully I can get that feeling around the 40point level then. Guess that should be close enough to zero to represent value. Perhaps better to wait for it to hit zero and when it get back to 40 to start buying :)
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Super Contributor
The scary thing is when you overlay that graph with today's one and you then realise how similar they are and just how far down it still can go. Thing is that consumers and boomers are all 'platsak'(sic) and they're in negative equity and they can't and won't borrow more money, and that's the rub. Nothing, but nothing is going to kickstart any economy until Joe Soap starts spending again. We're facing deflation due to deleveraging, and really, the biggest deleverage is the one that's going to happen in households not banks. The AGL earnings, considering how well things went up to Oct 08, is downright scary and predicts a really nasty 2009 ahead.
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Super Contributor
I am truly having an eery feeling bout this. This Friday's action is not good and it just so happened that one of our big counters (AGL) comes out with s h itt y news. I dont think in recent times have we had such a great setup for a black monday......
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Super Contributor
Yeah, my take home from that graph is at the second drop, it was 40% down, and only warming up. This is not to say "it will do that", but it is a great reminder to let go of preconcieved absolutes.
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Regular Contributor
That was a very insightful interpretation me thinks. I couldn't figure out what the hell to make to of that non move. I shall know for next time. :-)
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Super Contributor
B...difference is that pre '87 the multitude were more pliant & accepting as news/info. feed was like watching lava flow....virtually everybody was a longterm investor...UAL & Syfrets trusts were wild instruments in them days.....patience was in your dna...now we have the internet and the ENGINEERS, along with the new society that wants instant gratification & profits...the cover ups,the corporate speak, the platitudes of economists and downright bullschitte of "financial advisers" don't cut it today as 6 billion consumers realise they have been seriously schaffted by a handful of people...the naked anger & hate of big business worldwide is palpable....until they get out of the bunker of survival mode & start spending...putting "I luv my Bank!" stickers on their bumpers would be a good sign that things are about to turn.......your bearskin 'kini is still going to be the killer outfit on Lookout!
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Super Contributor
Ya JC, don't like to get in bunker mode but this really does look bad. That Russel guy saying it's about individuals and families looking out for themselves. And wise greybeards like Y and Barry saying it's not like in the past. Barry makes a good point when he says there wasn't the massive fraud the last times. The whole bloody thing is a Ponzi scheme.
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Super Contributor
Brazen...The issue is not a falling share market in itself ...the problems is in doing so you are killing of the top level of wealth...and with the housing problems you are removing middle class wealth...so in effect you are removing the ability to withstand the down cycle.
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Not applicable
Ja B ....someone else was commenting that we haven't seen the retail investor redemptions yet....which is step before capitulation...
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Super Contributor
And it's coming from every angle now. My tenant phoned me yesterday to say he's lost his job, not only that, the company hadn't paid him for the last two months. He's a highly qaulified IT guy in e-commerce with 3 kids under 10. And, I've lost a good tenant if he can't find a job - also loathe to put anyone else in at this time. . .
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Not applicable
Ja so whats that going to mean...no more luxury purchases for you...I am selling Richemont!
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Super Contributor
Gawd ya, gonna have to shop at Checker's or something. And hang on to Richemont, the gay are always with us.
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Super Contributor
So, when do we start having irrational pessimism?
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Super Contributor
Wise words YWNA,we "old timers" know things are likely to get worse and real recovery can probably only be spoken about next year.Yes i invested longterm keeping,De Beers etc for terms up to 25 years.Since i was carried away by the modern trading have not done half as well....I fancy that the shares were not so volatile then either.
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Not applicable
yes I forgot the BF would rather starve than not have that LV handbag
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Not applicable
didnt we have that in the ZARPIAN era...such a pity they all wiped themselves out trying to be bears in a bull market...they could have made loads now...
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Super Contributor
Mate of mine who was the personal advisor to an Irish PM...yeah I know!...gave me a glimpse into "old" Europe....wealth built up over a 200+ year period now decimated by 90% thanks to the likes of Fortis etc....but nothing is said/written....ya dunna want the neighbours knowing ya sold gold pea***** terrine dish back to the Pollak family you plundered it from in the Austro-Pollak War of 1799 now do you?....consider this...when have you ever heard you can get decent accommodation or timeshare in Spain, Greece, Turkey or Italy 3 months before the season....they bunkering down only like they know how, sloshing it up in the schloss with some good Moët vintage. As John said all levels of wealth are being eroded/decimated, call it what you will but there is a seriaaas re-alignment of what we understand to be of: value, risk, wealth creation, financial relationships & ABOVE ALL - TRUST...I wonder whether the good old "Building Society" will make a comeback?....Now there were honest crooks! Adios
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Super Contributor
US futures are looking bad but we'll have to see when the Yanks come online. Just read an article that claims that $10 trillion of middle class wealth wiped out in the US alone over the past year. That is a staggering amount. Bank of Austria which owns Kreditanstallt is rumoured to be in hock for over $1 trillion leveraged loans to Eastern Europe. Apparently the Poles can't repay their loans because the Zloty has lost some 40% of it's value. This defines why this time is different. The irony is that Kreditanstallt was the first one to go under in 1931. Other than the GD, the other recessions (like Barry said) were either localised or sectorised and didn't have a credit aspect to them. Somewhere in the world there was a solvent party to bail things out. I remember the 80's as a kid but I sure remember the dot.com and I assure you it was nuthin like this one. We're now spiralling into a vicous feedback loop where the consumer is not spending because he has lost +30% of his wealth, can't get credit and feels real fear, the company is feeling a double whammy in that they can't get credit because banks aren't lending while they aren't making money because consumers aren't spending, so the company lays off a couple more people to conserve cash, and the consumer feels more fear and spends even less and so it goes around and around. This didn't happen in 2001. Inflation is about money while depression is about fear. And the down cycle will not stop until leverage is flushed out of the system. Then inflation will hit (probably triggered by food prices) as the demand destruction evidenced by the BDI is nothing short of beyond belief. In a year or two we are going to see food shortages like this planet has never seen. I really hope we don't go there but I'm not sure we're going to dodge this bullet. The global economy is rebooting itself to clear the cache and there's nuthin to be done about it. I'm going to start stocking up on toppers and samp.
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Super Contributor
So whats left for us. Short ino the Rallies. Stay in cash. Look for value?
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Regular Contributor
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