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Some Truth to the Novices

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BC02
Super Contributor
Before more novices get suckered in, here is some experience I would like to share with any guys wishing to become good traders, some advice I wish I knew when I started.
(Please note this applies to traders not investors)

1) The secret to the market is that no-one knows whats going to happen to the market, people that say they do are liars.
Its really easy to substantiate this as well, think about it, with a couple of billion rand flying around every day how could guys in Stanlib know what the guys in RMB will do next, how can RMB know what the overseas investors will do next, Overseas investors know what Investec is going to do next...they cant, they dont.

The "smart" money makes just as many mistakes, look at Liberty with the 'pros' making over 3billion in losses in 1 year.
Another case on this one is Richemont (CFR) major investors couldnt sell the share fast enough, only to buy it back at higher prices.

2) There is no conspiracy out there, bulls arent waiting and a certain corner, because there is no team bulls (except in rugby) similarly there is no team of bears. Its all a bunch of clowns in charge of too much money.

3) The markets are an absolute circus, mainly because its driven by emotion, but generally mean reversion corrects it back to (more or less) where it should be.

4) Technical analysis is used for probabilities, NOT guarantees.
It uses past events to try and forecast a probability that something might happen in the future. Case and point we could see with some calls on the forum this week.
When you go with the trend you increase your probability of the trade going right.

5) You dont have to be right to make money in the markets
Garth MacKenzie a real professional trader who actually openly shows you his trades (on TV) is right between 30-50% of the time. That means that he is wrong MOST OF THE TIME, yet he still makes money.

6) Read "Trading in the Zone" it is considered the bible of trading It talks of the same principles

7) Stop listening to other peoples opinions, only take in advice from others that you trust but do your own research. Most of the time other peoples opinions will be wrong, and even if they were right because you dont know their system chances are you will make losses listening to them.

8) Stick to your stop losses, your rules and your discipline, no exceptions.

If you internalize these thoughts and only these thoughts you are 90% ahead of the game.
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12 REPLIES 12
Not applicable
the only really useful things here are the notion that no on knows what will happen and that you need to stick to your stoplosses...the rest is really just trader onanism which doesnt help anyone. You forgot to mention the most important thing of all....the best traders I know take all this drivel for granted because they have the one sine quoa non for being succesful....A WINNING ATTITUDE.....that doesnt mean that you think you are right...oh most definitely not...It means that you are not defeatest...too much negative talk in your little piece....all this nonsense about technical analysis...self evident verbal onanism which really doesnt help anyone.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
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Fredsed
Super Contributor
Advertising to gullible novices belongs elsewhere - somewhere far away where fees are required and some consumer protection afforded.
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Not applicable
what the novices need to be told is that there is an overwhelmingly good chance that they will lose all their money or at least a large part of it not once but probably twice before they get to make money...without the winning attitude which means the ability to get up and dust yourself off there is no hope in hell...all you need is a winning attitude (and the ability to count)...you can read all the trite little sayings and wisdoms...you can read all the trading "bibles"....they are all meaningless to someone without a winning attitude
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Fredsed
Super Contributor
Well off you go and practice your preaching, and make another appointment with your therapist while you at it.
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kwagga
Super Contributor
Only truth for me is, you need rules and they need to work for you, else your setting youself up for failure.
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Not applicable
absolutely...but you also need to know that those rules may be something you at first may not be able to keep...i.e. you will not realise the immense value of your statement.... and to get to that stage you need the winning attitude
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kwagga
Super Contributor
That's were experience (nothing more than rule repetition) is invaluable.
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Not applicable
couldnt agree more...but human nature is too think that our intelect and judgement is superior to the rules....discovering it isnt is the (almost inevitably) painful step we need to take
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Not applicable
dude, I have heard you repeat those same mantras on many occasions! They are all unequivocal truths
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BC02
Super Contributor
I guess I wasnt clear enough or RC you havent really internalized these thoughts. Maybe your still recovering from your losses yesterday, who knows

I'll be more direct with my advice to the new guys:
1. When someone (like RC) tells you this will happen on the markets it means that its someone that doesnt know what he's talking as he doesnt know how the markets work.

2. When someone talks about suckers on the market, it also means he doesnt know what he's talking about, and purely lives in a world of conspiracy theories, (his own demons he pushes onto others).

3. Watching someone else analysis on the webiste (like RC's) is a colossal waste of time and the only person that makes money is RC.
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Rams
Super Contributor
well as you have shown, you have neither intellect nor judgement. So just follow the rules...anyway, you here every minute...has your site been closed down,,,or just not busy enuf since the overthrow?
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