Scary...AMS & IMP Using these new estimates for platinum supply our model now forecasts a neutral balance of platinum for 2009 and 2010. We, however, show from historical data that the recovery of global vehicle growth to previous production levels after a credit squeeze has been between six and eight years, therefore our supply and demand model moves into a surplus. Under these circumstances, the industry may have to shed another 400 000 to 500 000 ounces of platinum per annum. We therefore believe metal and equity prices will remain muted for some time. Recommendation. In the platinum sector and in the long term we prefer Impala Platinum to Anglo Platinum. Impala Platinum: Underperform TP R82/share: Anglo Platinum: Underperform TP R52/share. We believe there are higher risks in the platinum sector due mainly to the fall out from the credit crisis and as such we prefer the gold sector.
