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South Africa

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MichaelR
Regular Contributor
South Africa is probably the leading economy in the world, says Dr Martyn Davies, chief executive of Frontier Advisory, a research and strategy company working in frontier and emerging markets and director of the Centre for Chinese Studies at Stellenbosch University. "No other country of our size and economic ranking has produced as many globally successful Fortune 500 companies as we have. The only comparable country is South Korea. There is a phenomenal ability for South African companies to grow and go global from South Africa. No other comparably sized emerging market has been able to succeed in doing that; not even the Chinese, not even the Indians."
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7 REPLIES 7
topgun
Super Contributor
Do you share that belief?
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kwagga
Super Contributor
You forgot to mention the journalists comment after the quote - Then Dr Martyn Davies puts down his smoking sock, stuffed with what I presume is Stellenboch's finest and lazily smiles at me. I excuse myself as a little drool starts trickling down his now rosy cheek. I've got an article to write and I leave.....
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Not applicable
So many ways to measure an economy - but 6% inflation, 30% unemployment, double digit interest rates, poor public infrastructure and an HDI comparable with some of hte poorest countries in the world do not make for pretty reading. His measure of number of fortune 500 companies seems irrelevant. What is relevant is how much of our GDP is derived out of those companies and how much of their bottom line benefits us locally vs international investors. Some fortune 500 companies have turnovers bigger than SA's entire GDP so put that into perspective
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_nova
Super Contributor
I wonder who sponsors the good dokotela's research? Read leading as lagging since good old SA is 18 months late for every "party" and all forumites would be well advised to keep a sharp eye on the BDI which is clearly starting to say that the world economy is in a Depression with a capital "D". Oh, and Shaun? Nobody can really predict the EURUSD relationship. However, I did say 7.50 before 10 and we almost got right on the button didn't we? Now watch the volatility and wait for the first sovereign fund to blink on UST's and then watch the USD go down... except it's going to take us emerging guppies with it and then some big name currencies as well and all cash will devalue like there's no tomorrow. Somewhere in the next two years it would be a good idea to NOT be in cash no matter how bad stock counters are doing. It's a matter of surviving deleverage not inflation. OMHO
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Not applicable
Hey prophet nova - back from the dead! How long you stayin?
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_nova
Super Contributor
Howdy Skaaptjop! I check in as often as I can. Have been real busy lately and travelling to some seriously downmarket spots. I cannot believe how corrupt this continent is! The Yank bankers may be corrupt but they are angels compared to the sods in the driving seats of Africa! "Sweets" in Zambia, "Baksheesh" in Libya, who cares, its all the same corrupt personality types who don't give a shaait about poor people and shoot them if they do anything more than breathe air. So I haven't checked in as often as I'd like to. And if I was a prophet I would be rich and not just comfortable haha. By my own stats I get it wrong 7 out of 10 times... thanks goodness for trading strategies that say STOP OUT! Anyway, prophecy time... I told some oke 6 months back that between Sep and Nov 09 we're going to dip big time and I still hold to that view. Not trying to time it but looking for the signs and the Baltic Dry is a sure sign we're almost there. The big question is whether we're going over the cliff or just correcting into a W shape with U bottoms? That i don't know and time will tell but what I'm sure of is that the BDI and the 2010 and 2011 Prime and other Mortgage resets and the "off-book" derivatives are going to "surprise" the many unwashed in a big way. This thing aint over by a long shot and we very well could see a whole new financial system by 2015. That's prediction and by nature guesswork but if it looks like a duck...
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_nova
Super Contributor
Here's the other thing to keep an eye on... The Fed only reports on M0. When you look at US M0 and M3 the picture gets ugly. They're printing money till the tree's run out but its all sitting in bank vaults and credit is still visiting the big credit card in the sky, its just gone! So where is the recovery going to come from? We are in a whole new world of hurt. Watch the US M0 and M3. When M3 picks up then IMHO its time to start worrying about the nominal value of cash
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