Standard Bank-Why oh why?

[platsak]

Any news out there. Mayor support coming up. Will it fall sub 70?. Dropping on low volumes. Possible mayor bounce coming up? Or will it just drop further?!! Any opinions

[SimonPB]

well if the trend is your friend, and it always is, then you have an answer.

[platsak]

Simon. No actually I dont have an answer?

[SimonPB]

take a daily line chart with nothing on it but the price. Then lean back in your chair and look at the chart asking yourself which way it is going. The answer either jumps out at you in which case this has to be your bias as to the direction to trade. OR nothing jumps out at you in which case sit on your hands until something does jump out. With SBK what jumps out at you is that this stock is going down. Will it continue, who knows, but calling the bottom is a mugs game.

[platsak]

Simon. Youre problably right.

[Russ]

Platsak,I have some news."Moody's cautious and watchful on S A banks". Read the article on www.moneyweb.co.za

[deanmg]

i have asked the question previously: when are banks going to stop going down? i believe we fully feel the effects of each interest rate increase 12 months after the increase. Does this mean until EVERYTHING calms down banks will start stabilising? I have been wanting to get into Absa and Standard for a while now because to my 'young and stupid' mind they are looking incredibly attractive at these levels - the only problem is that they keep dropping lower and lower and lower still... very confuzzled with when to get in!

[SimonPB]

buy them when they start going up, not a blip higher, use the logic above and wait until the up trend jumps out at you. You'll miss the absolute bottom, but hey you're going to miss it anyway.

[barry_1]

watch the regression line as well,although u wont get in at the bottom,when it starts to run still going down but near horizontally,then look at other indicators and decide what to do....Summit last week tipped SBK,it is a very good share.Banks generally will probably not do badly at their next interims and FSR final.How ever it is about the general economy which is expected to deliver a weaker than usual performance in the next six months,as major shares take their que from whats going to happen in the near future.

[platsak]

I personally think we are near the bottom. But Simon is problably right in saying that one musnt try to call the bottom. Its still very frustrating not trying to do it. Big funds problably waiting for certain levels before buying in again. Im guessing between 72-74. There must be excellent value at that levels?

[MichaelR]

The bottom is near. BUY

[SimonPB]

ah, a man with a crystal ball. Now that's what I need in my life :)

[Plonky]

Surely market perception and sentiment are playing a big role now. The gurus all tell us that the PE is really low, and the Div. Yld is offering great value. The share still goes south, perhaps the high inflation, coupled with other factors like petrol hikes and food prices will cause problems for the consumers. (We all know this). Houses will start being reposessed. Just look in the papers to see how many auctions there are lately. The banks will battle to get the loans serviced, and bad debts will increase. The market knows this and discounts the share value. I think SBK will continue to fall for a while still.

[platsak]

Banking index support of 25880 coming up.

[Shaun_Siddall]

PE only as good as earnings, most banks have stated they do not expect any growth in earnings this year down from inflation plus 10 to +5 to flat (in +- 6 months) This is only the start all the big boys are sitting with there hands in there pockets. Dividend yeild very hard cause if no growth in profit and the cost of capital continueing to increase i dont see current dividends yeilds been where they are in 6-8 months. I would stay short.

[platsak]

The overipe tropical fruit is rapidly nearing the fan!

[simps]

...And the fruit skin has just been shaved off!!!! It could hit the fan anytime fro now...Watch the closing prices today and remember. THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND