TELKOMS worth after MAY

[#1]

What are your feelings of the price of telkom after the unbundling and dividend ? and what are your views for telkom in the next few months?

[_nova]

The way these guys have jacked up their service levels over the past three years compel me to take a look at them. I've never held this share but I'm now looking at it. Here's why: Both MTN and Vodacom (let's not mention C) suck when it comes to service and especially their ability to correctly read demographics and determine a value chain for customers. They're chasing teenagers who subscribe to 31# services and take soft porn pics of each other which they post on facebook. Telkom has seen this and quietly introduced their 3G service about 3 weeks back. It's early days but I think Telkom is going to be taking a lion's share of the business demographic (by far the most valuable broadband demographic) over the next couple of earnings seasons. OMO

[Marno_1]

Nova I think you are spot on. As I have mentioned in previous discussions Vodacom was the Handicap for Telkom all the year. Every time that Telkom want to invest in wireless Vodacom have stop them to make progress. This is the reason why Telkom have only concentrated on huge Micro Wave systems, Optic Fibre and Copper networks. Now that Telkom parted from Vodacom we will see Telkom's real growth potential. I am slightly worried about the current Telkom Top Management constantly popping up in the Media with pad publicity articles so everything is now well at TOP management. If they can sort that out Telkom could be well worth investing in. After unbundling the Share value could be between R50 - R60. OMO

[SKALA]

Nova, I like your input! Makes sense to me; bought some for the firts time recently and intending to hold for a while.

[flaffie]

My question is simple. If Telkom is going to drop by 55% after the D-day what is the use of holding on to it except for the R19 and the Vodacom shares. To me it's penny wise and pound foolish. The drop (to about R50 from the current R117 is much more than the gain of a lousy R19. The question is: What will Vodacom be worth. Will it make up for the loss in Telkom? Hewlp please.

[Marno_1]

flaffie- this is exactly why it was so importand to buy at the correct price. I would say it is now to late to buy Telkom share just to get the div. and Vodacom share. If you want o keep the Telkom shares for a meduim term(3-5years) then it is another storie.

[DEP]

Tkg (current) = R50 to R60 Vod + R19 div. + R40 to R50 Tkg

[#8]

Hi all! Do u guys really think its going to drop by 50% after D-day

[DEP]

Yes, but you'll get your 50% in the form of Vod shares + R19 Div. So the sum of the Vod + div + tkg should equal around R120.

[#10]

where does Cell C fit in the picture

[DEP]

Cell C is not in this picture.

[klapka]

Telkom has an NAV of over R90 a share. That is nowhere reflected in the present share price and does not even include Multi-links. The problem with Telkom though is that this NAV is hardly tangible, most of it being buried underground and requiring huge maintenance costs going forward. Secondly the thought police hate Telkom with a passion so we continue to read endless negative press which keeps investors away. Perhaps VOD is going to be the outperformer in the short term? Shares will probably only be available from Telkom shareholders selling off their windfall and as it is going to be a top 10 share the fund managers are going to be early buyers (perhaps?). IMHO Anyway I am going to hang in for now and see how things pan out over the next few weeks.

[DEP]

I'm with you on this one, you need patience on TKG. I think TKG (all parts) will out perform the TOPI by year end 2009.

[#14]

im in aswell. i see in the sake24 they say theres a posibility that telkom is going to take over cell c. if its true i dont know. OMO

[#15]

Telkom launched a 3G network sometime last month and now they need a wireless carrier to help them compete with the big two networks i.e. VOD and MTN. I think before year end Telkom will either takeover Cell C or enter into a partnership with it. But either ways Telkom will buy or enter into a partnership with a wireless carrier this year.

[Schmidt]

The Telkom share price will drop twice. Once after unbundling and again after the dividend is paid. Drop 1) Unbundling Expect a 50% drop, you're splitting a company that has two components each of equalish income, after all. But you gain double the shares. Drop 2) Divi paid out. The divi is in the current share price. Expect the Telkom price to Drop to R30 levels. All this sounds terrible but... its pretty fairly priced and you should end up pretty square. Definitely a long term punt at this stage.