TOPI

[Russ]

is just hitting resistance (20480-20500) again,but on very light volume.This is its second attempt to penetrate this level in the last couple of days.

[john_1]

A close above 22600 on the cash gives a new buy signal..

[#3]

Ja it really is battling....we are trying to take out the high of 18 Dec as well so its a triple top.....I don't think its gonna do it...big orders are on the sell side...

[#4]

Ja we failed...(the futures i mean)at 20800...we may have a go later again but for now the rally is off

[JohnnyCash]

just breaching as we speak... Cash to follow soon....

[john_1]

looks like it is through for now.. but it is the closing price that is so important toady.

[#7]

Chartist, do you have any info on the so called "January Effect"?

[john_1]

The January effect is the tendency of the stock market to rise between December 31 and the end of the first week in January. There are many theories for why this happens, the main one being that it occurs because many investors choose to sell some of their stock right before the end of the year in order to claim a capital loss for tax purposes. Once the tax calendar rolls over to a new year on January 1st these same investors quickly reinvest their money in the market, causing stock prices to rise. The January effect has been observed numerous times throughout history, though the first week of January 2008 was a notable exception. Historically if the S&P 500 goes up in January the trend will follow for the rest of the year. Conversely if the S&P falls in January then it will fall for the rest of the year. Since 1979 this trend has been repeated 32 of a possible 39 times. (Mirabaud Strategic team)

[#9]

Looks to me like the 204-206 level is really significant and has been tested since October 3. It has been tested 4 times - 5 if you include November 5 where it fell a bit short. Would any of you short the TOPI, if we don't close above? If so, what would your expected gains be?

[Russ]

Not sure about shorting it,Skaaptjop,but there is a massive potential up move if it gets through this resistance after testing it 5 times.This appears to be an ascending triangle.

[Mr_S]

May i ask what warrants, if any, you will be entering if there is an buy signal. yesturday I sold out of AGLSBE with the view that futures were down etc, but i might have been wrong about that so i will re-enter if there is a sign of a major upswing. thanks

[#12]

Thanks Rus. I am also interested to hear how you would approach going long on an ascending triangle breakout. They are not my favourite pattern, because I don't know how to set a target exit price. (They have high potential for a pullback). For me, i am waiting for a breakout, followed by a pullback in order for a swing trade setup, but I would like to hear alternative strategies

[barry_1]

John,well explained,yes i fully believe in that theory....just as i believe in "Sell in May and go away!"....Now Simon had just said there was no such effect when the market hit its highest point on the 22 of May 2008 namely 33,310!....The market then had its worst plunge in modern history reaching its lowert point of near 18000 in Nov!....Now i must admit circumstances must exist that cause massive moves,but probably knowing about these phases also helps accelerate the moves.....I feel that the present upturn will probably peter out as the news coming out of the old industrial countries continues to be very bad....I'm hoping that this run will last into Feb and that a secondary run will occur late in Mar though April before we return to the bear again.

[john_1]

Barry historically May is actually a good month but JUNE is the worst with DEC and January the best...but then you and your bank account know this already..my point is its june not may that must be avoided.

[barry_1]

Unfortunately u are right!

[john_1]

21000?

[john_1]

yeah!!

[JohnnyCash]

On the daily TOP40 there's a RHS of which the neckline got broken beginning of Dec08. Went all the way back and retested neckline. We've now breached that high and potential upside for next month or 2 is 23000. Can then easily retrace to below 19,000, if 20,000 doesn't hold. For now, very nice momentum building up with this up move!

[john_1]

Wow. that was a wild last half hour... that gap close on the US really took the wind out for a few minutes.

[JohnnyCash]

What is the significance of a descending triangle and what kind of probabilities are attached to it playing out and most likely in what direction? And as I write this they try and run it out on the upside only to really see it fall back!!!