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Talking heads in consensus

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Super Contributor
It seems that all the talking heads are in consensus. The worst is behind us and we can all look forward to slow grinding progress from here on forward. They say we have seen the bottom and we'll see economic improvement in the 4th Q or 1st Q next year. Meanwhile some gold bugs are seeing new bubbles developing in other dark and obscure places. What do you think? I'm personally a little sceptical and divided on the matter.
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19 REPLIES 19
Regular Contributor
Concensus seems to be a very reliable contrarian indicator. Time to short everything exept gold?
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Valued Contributor
err, cept I am a talking head, and in 4 interviews (radio an TV) in the last 24 hours, I agree that the above is possible .. but the other side of the coin can not be completely discounted and in this stage of the process anybody who claims to know the out come - is a dullard ..
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Super Contributor
Problem is risk was moved off the books of the banks,and financial institutions to the fed and treasury in the US. There they can do with these toxic assets on their books as they please with a lot less transparancy than public companies. I still can't figure out exactly how you can spend youself out debt, no matter where the risk shifts too. All you can do is let the market absorb the risk and ration the pain over a longer duration of time this way.
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Valued Contributor
Problem is risk was moved off the books of the banks .. I don't think that is true .. the truth is that nobody really knows the full extent of the toxic assets, nor how toxis they may be .. not saying it is all doom and gloom .. just that nobody really knows ..
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Super Contributor
Something else Simon - Why can't you determine how toxic your assets on your books are? I just don't get it. It like building a car, and before you know how it works and what the risks are you sell it to the world? All you know is it can reach 400km/h on a perfect road, and will probably take quite a while to stop because you didn't think or care about brakes. What the hell does it help to acquire the world's most brilliant finance minds, you give them the best modelling tools and the latest processing systems and they design products that no one including themselves understands? Something is seriously wrong with this picture and it's bloody annoying!!!
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Valued Contributor
because the toxic's where wrapped up, bend, moulded and massaged into new shape .. getting to the ultimate underlying asset an then valuing that asset is not easy ..
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Super Contributor
Nice way to cover fraudulent behaviour if you ask me. Like giving a derivative formula to a judge and he can't prosecute unless he unravels the true meaning of the formula. They have really raped and pillaged the ideals of capitalism this time.
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Super Contributor
be still thy bleading heart...just trade the price.
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Super Contributor
Trade the price.....that's way to simple for me John. Day trading is not really my thing.
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Super Contributor
point is the money is in following the market... if it goes up so must you..or visa versa...the less you know other than how to do that the better.
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Super Contributor
Off the topic a tad. Tried to sell my Simon PB poster on Bid or Buy. A smidgen of interest, but bidders wanted it signed. Can I mail it to SBK and get you to autograph it? Thank you in advance.
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Super Contributor
And if anyone on the forum is interested I am open to offers. It's just a pic I took with my phone during one of his lectures. I've blown it up really big, admittedly it's a little blurry, but you can tell it's him.
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Super Contributor
i'm thinking of buying a TOPI Put,what with the election coming up,will cause jitters overseas....just as to when to enter i'm not sure?
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Super Contributor
Photoshop on a mankini and you'll do well.
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Super Contributor
If he get's a hearcut and a proper haistyle he'll be worth much more.
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Super Contributor
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Valued Contributor
jess .. an should I get a grey suit an white shirt as well .. then I can really just look like another boring ###### ..
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Super Contributor
Geez. Are there no limits? Now the nanny is blocking out b*anker!
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Super Contributor
dont know abt jitters everyone knows JZ gonna walk this thing only question is do they get the 2 thirds majority or not? I think should they not get the 2/3rds it may be positive news
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