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Technical Analysis course, some thoughts for Simon Brown

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Parttimer
Frequent Contributor
Hi Simon, I attented your technical analysis course this weekend and would like to suggest some ideas. Most of the people who attend, like me, are novice investors. Now, its easy when you see a complete price chart to know what the trend would be like when you look at the patterns, stochastics, MACD, RSI etc. Why not think about the following.. Determine a 10 point check list with the students. Some probabilities are assigned which can always be calibrated with time. We then view the price chart to a previous date in time, and not the current price. With this in mind, we then go through the checklist and try and predict what the price is going to do. Then the next phase of the price chart is revealed we check how our predictions matched the actuals. We can then go through an iterative process to validate our check list. We can run a few interactive examples ( we should not name the company as people will catch on the pricing action which defeats what we"re trying to achieve) in the class as we know what the forward trend is based on the actual price but its a great way to inteactively try and predict the future. I feel that as students we'll derive much more value than just going through the theory. Happy to have a cup of coffee and discuss if you think that there is any value in this.
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28 REPLIES 28
SimonPB
Valued Contributor
agreed and I like the idea .. Time an issue and likely we will do it via a webcast, or a stand alone practical course
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Rams
Super Contributor
make it more interesting, put some real money on the table, and trade against each other...
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Preston
Super Contributor
lol,Alternatively, you can fund RAMS trading account. It is quiet low considering all the BAD trades he has placed recently.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
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Rams
Super Contributor
one thinks very clearly when there is no money involved(like analysts). Simply because there is no risk involved...mastering TA is only part of the learning, probably the least important, but managing risk is the more important. So maybe, trade the current setup, on the JSE, and see what your portfolio does...no risk = false sense of security
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Parttimer
Frequent Contributor
Do its as part of the course. Maybe an hour and half of theory and then 3 hours of practical examples. What I think that also needs to be explained are what the oscillators actually do. moving averages are easily understood. HAve the instructors explain very simply what the RSI, ROC, RS, Stochastic actually are in theory and what they indicate to us. I alwasy think that if the basics are understood, then the above instruments makes a lot of sense to use rather than just knowing its name and using its application parrot fashion. Basics are the strong building block of undestanding something. Also the idea behing the checklist is also to give us the basics tools which helps the prediction process. Thereafter we can use this as a foundation to apply our own independant thinking as we navigate and learn the lessons of the markets
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Rams
Super Contributor
parttimer, you seem to repeat the word "prediction, predict"...TA does not and cannot do that...if you understand moving averages, its probably all you need, and a good understanding of risk management
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Parttimer
Frequent Contributor
Hi Rams, thanks but I do not agree with you. The moving averages give you a trend as whether the price momentum is up or down. The different chart patterns eg, rising and falling wedges, triangles, head and shoulders etc tells you where the price is likely be. If you are a trader this is important as you got to work out a probable price as there are costs involved and you do not want the final price to be at a point where you break even or loose money.
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prancing_horse
Super Contributor
How dare you disagree with our resident guru. You are now at risk of ending up in the forum trash bin.
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Preston
Super Contributor
lol,Oh no, now you made an enemy with the resident guru. Be prepared for silly mind games, erractic comments and labelling you as a "BAD TRADER". On the flip side , RAMS is an easy target on days where you are extremely bored.
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Rams
Super Contributor
Parttimer, the point i make is that it matters not what you trading but how you trading...you must trade the price, and in my opinion, MA is probably the closest to trading the price....the last traded price is in the average of the price for that time frame and periods. i see you still fixated on predicting the future price...forget, not going to happen, all you can predict is your risk and maybe chart patterns can help you with that...
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Preston
Super Contributor
AGL---> Cash inflow 22c , cash outflow R32 per share.
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Rams
Super Contributor
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Rams
Super Contributor
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Preston
Super Contributor
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Parttimer
Frequent Contributor
Hi Rams, I'm just going to "short" your logic and leave it at that. God Bless.
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Rams
Super Contributor
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Preston
Super Contributor
Rams,Parttimer wounded you with that excellent comeback.
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