i do not yet have a lot of experience with share transactions but i could imagine that : if you buy TKG at current levels of say 60.- then THAT will be your capital base cost. (assuming you did not hold TKG before the unbundling) the special div will be paid and effectively will pay you R19 of "capital" back in the form of tax free dividends. TKG price will drop by an equivalent R 19.- to R 41.- the share price can now recover (TKG performance dependent) by R19 without you having to pay any tax on this "gain". if it does not recover and you sell TKG for R 41.-, you will be able to utilise the effective loss against other investment profits. from my perspective, it makes sense from a tax point of view to have been part of the TKG/VOD story. its not everyday you can collect R19 of capital as a dividend completely tax free. of course the pudding will taste a lot sweeter if both VOD and TKG will continue top perform. what does everyone else say ?
The R19 divi is already pretty much in the current price. Do some maths and see what you paid. 2009 going into 2010 will be a tough year for most companies, so don't expect a "shoot the lights out" performance, Telkom has been horribly mismanaged, but should now be able to compete with other telecoms operators. If you don't currently hold Telkom shares and you want to take a long term view, I would personally buy after the divi payout, as I think you MIGHT be able to pick up Telkom well below its market value.
For me honestly will wait as Telkom's cash cow i.e is Vodacom is gone, will see how will they try to make that extra cash alone. In paper they say that they will expand to AFrica and so far their Nigerian business made a loss and that puts lot of doubts on their growth capabilities. Will see if they enter into an agreement with a wireless carrier in order to realise their vision of venturing into Africa. The share price should be around R39-41 after the special div of R19, question is will it go up and if yes when. Long term it might look good.
I know in theory, a share is supposed to fall by the amount of the dividend payout when the share goes ex-dividend. What I don't understand is that, if you "know" a share is going to drop, why can't you just trade futures or warrants on the share before it drops? (almost sounds like arbitrage).
Probably fall on Monday to around R40. You won't have a chance to sell before. It opens down, same as this Monday. Probably will recover to 50 again quite quickly - that can be your chance. It will end up closing around 45.