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Online Share Trading

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Tempting Short - Naspers

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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
probability based on what ??
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Mr_S
Super Contributor
Barry, i have been studying MTX, and im trying to make the decision between it and MRF. MTX seems to come out on top, but im worried abt the sale of non - core assets. What if this ends up like barloworld? with the share price down big time and the company being weaker etc etc. do you think this is a possibility with MTX? im looking at an investment of 5 years. focus being more on capital growth...oh and i tried to contact MTX about which core assets they are selling off but they didnt respond, will ask again tho
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KVW
Super Contributor
Mr. S it is worrying when a company sells "Non-Core" assets but I think MTX just took to much on and wondered away from their core buiness which is Copper throughtout Africa. I think it a good move so that their exec. taem and eng. teams can all focus on the real money. MTX is well hedged and the Cu warehouse stocks are dropping so the demand is going to come through soon, Short term a little flat medium will give you a good return but long term 3yrs your looking at a great return 100+ % it has to recover to at least 1500, they are going to show a good set of results and a lighter debt book.
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barry_1
Super Contributor
Mr S the answer from KVW is about as good as you can get.Remember copper is a volatile metal.... Last night on one of my e-mails i receive that the production of copper was completely over estimated earlier this year and that no mines should have shut down.In the estimation that was made before the shut down start up mines production was added to the amount that was been produced.New copper projects take years to start producing so that is where the mistake was made.The existing mines are mostly long in the tooth and are steadily declining.COPPER IS IN SHORT SUPPLY AND LIKELY TO GET SHORTER....THE ONLY DANGER to copper is that end users might short it if the price rises too much....For the longer term one can also look at PAM.Really only my opinion.
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barry_1
Super Contributor
The second last sentrence should read ;-The only danger to copper is that end users might thrift it(that is find substitutes) if the price rises too rapidly.
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Mr_S
Super Contributor
barry, thanks for the reply. So in terms of long term capital growth, i take it you would choose MTX over MRF? Any other small caps you might suggest i look into for long term cap growth. I know its only your opinion, but its valued.
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Theater_Cat
Super Contributor
...that shares seldom keep going up and up and up hard and fast in a straight line (as has been the case with NPN of late). Reversion to the mean.
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Theater_Cat
Super Contributor
Barry, Mr S - why are we discussing MTX in an NPN thread....
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Theater_Cat
Super Contributor
Ag sherbert!! Seeing that this share can only go up and up and up and never pluu back i went long at R247 - and now?? heavan forbid, it is pulling back!!
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asylum
Super Contributor
market is overbought so a pullback was expected, look at the top 40 chart as an indication of when to buy, its not fullproof but i use it as a quideline, top 40 could pull back to around the 20960 level and if that holds we will then rally on, a close bellow that level you should hold buying until a trend has established, omo.
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asylum
Super Contributor
forgot to mention that i also look at the individual share as well to see where its positioned at the time. I would look at say 10 shares on my radar, when the top 40 is in a favourable position i then look at the individual shares to see which ones will benefit most from an upward move and buy 5 that i think have the best chance of an upward move, and eliminate the other 5. omo
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KJR
Frequent Contributor
NPN was overbought for a long time and a pullback was long overdue.Currently dropping sharply.Question is,how far will it fall before recovering
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doomsdayza
Super Contributor
In the immortal words of Facebook: "doomsdayza likes this"
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Not applicable
Now that is a great strategy!
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Electrox
Super Contributor
Theres a gap to close...
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Not applicable
what gap and to which side
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Not applicable
for all gap traders, can your'l advise me if the gap made on 6th Nov 2008 on ANG still has to be closed? thanks
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Not applicable
sorry 21st/24th NOV 2008
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asylum
Super Contributor
skaaptjop its not perfect but it works out ok, by alocating funds to 5 or more shares i spread the risk, when the next opportunity comes along i would keep the ones that are ridding high and eliminate the losers with new possibilities.
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Not applicable
Asylum, I am a great believer in the principle of relative strength, which is what your strategy utilizes. Stocks that rally strongest, are likely to rally strongest again after a downcycle. By spreading out around 5 stocks, you are bound to hit 1 that is going to give you the big 30% move.
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