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The holy grail

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Frequent Contributor
I suppose the holy grail in trading/investing is being able to tell when the market is moving from bull to bear and visa versa. obviously there is no big red light that says we are moving fom one to the other, but what i the kinds of things one looks at in order to identify a shift in the trend from bear to bull and visa versa? I would rly apreciate input on this as i have absolutly no idea. THX
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11 REPLIES 11
Super Contributor
Have a look at the regression lines on the charts,if the angle for instance is moderating or steepening then u should have a good idea of which way tha market is moving....Remember to shorten the days if u feel a change is coming,but never loose sight of the longer term.
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Valued Contributor
salv, more simple then that as you won't know until way after .. just trade the trend ..
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JRW
Occasional Contributor
Just remember you don't have to catch the entire move to turn a profit. It's a lot simpler to ride the trend than to try and call the top or bottom!
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Frequent Contributor
Not sure how complicated the answer should be that you're looking for, but the simple answer is: higher highs and higher lows vs lower lows and lower highs.
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Frequent Contributor
Ok i get what you guys are saying, what freaks me out is, that dead cat bounce u guys refer to, so u think its all good, things are going up, and then it turn down again. Or do u just counter a dead cat bounce with a good stop loss?
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Super Contributor
Yes and difficult i know ,but try to restrain yourself from entering on the first day of up for shares,of course in warrants it depends more if u have anticipated the swing....Ask Nova 'bout that.
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Regular Contributor
Also know the difference between a Bull/Bear primary trend as opposed to a rising or falling secondary or minor trend. Yonatan reckons knowing the primary trend is the most important piece of info you can have. For example, we are currently in a true bear market, which is different from for example the tech bubble pop, which was a correction. Funny things happen in a true Bear market...
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Regular Contributor
Ja like the yanks rallying everytime they get shocked by how many people loose their jobs.
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Super Contributor
Maybe sell on rumour buy on fact? Or maybe they just feel like buying so stand back y'all
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Regular Contributor
Bear market and all, I've been in some horrible short squeezes. Watching those yanks rally for no apparent reason makes me think of last year when that shopper got trampled to death when the doors opened for a sale!
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Super Contributor
Best way is to look at the weekly charts when they go green and get above the 50 ems then it would indicate a change of momentum and a long position considered. Downward momentum has now slowed and we seem to be consolidating in a range, a break of 16000 (which I think we will test soon) would be a good time to reload on the shorts.
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