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This one seems to be heading south! Anyone got news on Astral?

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Contributor
This one seems to be heading south! Anyone got news on Astral?
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12 REPLIES 12
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No idea. Am quite keen to find out myself. Volumes are quite low though. i dumped all my stock at 14500c after it went ex-divi. Seems like there no support now for the stock it just went through each support line. It seems as though next support is by the 9800c - 10200c region. By than the PE will be looking mighty attractive and considering the fundamentals are still intact, I would think this share would have good medium term potential. OMO Any thoughts Barry?
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Super Contributor
Maize is getting expensive. That could be part of the problem.
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Super Contributor
Anything that has not got to do with resources at the moment is getting dumped at the moment,to release funds for the frenzy.Maize should be cheaper this year,how ever i prefer Rainbow at this time as they are coming up to their Final in June and Astral is heading for their interim.i'm not in either at the moment but will enter nearer their declaration dates again as they present good value.
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Contributor
Thanks guys for the info! Ozone i'm also waiting for 102 to load up...
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Ummmm yeah waiting, but did you see the volumes on the share today??? What do you guys and gals make of that?
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Investec report: Risks to profitability of the South African poultry industry have increased in recent months. We see little downside to the maize price from current levels and the industry may experience temporary oversupply in coming months, leading to softer prices. We have cut our earnings estimates by roughly 8% and our recommendation to Sell. - We have cut our FY2008E diluted EPS estimate by 8% to 1 490cps, mostly because we now expect the poultry margin to contract again in the current year as a result of an expected underrecovery of higher input costs. - We base our target price of 14 000cps (previously 16 800cps) on a rolling forward P/E of 9x. This implies a discount to our targeted exit multiple for the Alsi (12x) of 25%. The share currently trades on an historic P/E of 8.6x, implying a 22% discount to the market's current historic P/E of 11.0x. According to INET data, the stock has traded at an average discount to the Alsi of roughly 40% during the past five years. Key points We judge that the risks to the South African poultry industry have increased in recent months, for the following reasons: 􀂄 Consumer demand has begun to slow, according to industry and retail sources, as a result of materially higher chicken prices (brought about by higher maize prices) and higher interest rates. 􀂄 Poultry supply has increased as a result of a number of capacity expansion initiatives, notably the Earlybird expansion project (400,000 birds/week). 􀂄 International maize prices have risen sharply. Additionally the rand has weakened and we now foresee limited downside for the SAFEX maize price, despite excellent local growing conditions. The South African maize price is now closer to the export parity price (EPP) than the import parity price (IPP) for the first time since February 2007. 􀂄 The International Trade Administration Commission (Itac) may s***** antidumping duties on chicken pieces following a recent Supreme Court of Appeal ruling. These duties presently apply to US exports. This could result in an increase in chicken imports. We have cut our FY2008E diluted EPS estimate from 1 618cps to 1 490cps. Our new estimate implies growth of 8%. The key driver of our earnings downgrade is our lower operating margin assumption in respect of Astral's poultry division. We now target 10% (11% previously). We are concerned that average input costs will rise again in FY2008E and that Astral will not be able to recover fully these higher costs as a result of softer consumer demand. We highlight the poultry division's operating margin trend and our projections in the chart below.
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Has downside target of 11000. If it cannot bounce then theres more Sh_it. theres low volumes, looks like no one interestd.
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Super Contributor
Why not short Astral you have a compelling argument for it?. I have but due to low volume I have kept my position small.
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Broker consensus = BUY. Must hold above support
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Super Contributor
MKADIR which level are you using for support?.
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I am calculating support using "Head Price" minus "Neckline price". Just to be safe i've made 11000 my support!!!.
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Super Contributor
thanks will look at the graph again.
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