Oi vey! This rally is lifting every oscillator nicely. Them bears are watching (remember? Bulls run before they look and Bears look before they run?). The rallies on the US markets are kneejerk IMHO and that only because Vikram Pandit says he doesn't think Citi is in trouble? Hello? Though I must say that them bones spoke to me this morning and I closed all me shorts, and I'll hibernate till them bones speak agin, which I be thinkin will be soon. I don't think the big funds are seriously buying as DOW volume, so far, is less than half of what the sell-off was on 27 Feb. Step oh so softly little grasshoppers as this be a dead kitty methinks, and it could go for a bit. DOW TRAN at +6% is just not pukka in a business environment that has cut corporate travel by 60%. The pro's are jest a settin on their's porches waitin for them mozzies to fly into the zapper. Step back and look at the daily, weekly and monthly charts for the DOW, SnP and TRAN and you'll see whot I mean. BIG SETUP! (If Chartist was here, I think he'd agree... John? what you think?)
Wiz? I want to kick myself!!!! I saw 1.28 as a crux point and didn't go short... eish! The EURUSD and USD Index are once again leading big time! Watch the euphoria come plunging down sooner than later. Holy mack! I'm watching the thing plunge from 1.28 at 12h00 to 1.26 at 20h00! that's a 2 bagger in 8 hours! go figure, what an ass I am for missing this. It's gonna plug a big stopper up the stock market's bum soon. AU is heading for 800... Dang! I shoulda held me shorts!
ah nova dont worry m8, the gret oppertunity to short is ComIng.. this is ust a small ice of the pie, this kitty bounce will lead the way soon enough, as to the EUR is just retracing to 50% at the moment, i expect it back above 1.275 by morning comes, the USD index also did break support today so lets see where it will eventually retrace to.. out till later
In my opinion the rally is on its last legs. The VIX, at 44.37 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^VIX) is at its lowest level since February 13th. Comparing the 1-month charts of the VIX and the S&P 500 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^GSPC), the last time the VIX closed near these levels (44.66 on February 26th), the S&P closed at 753; i.e. the S&P has declined 4.4% in about 2 weeks with the VIX essentially the same. This indicates downward pressure from main street, not the speculators, and it is likely to dampen any further rally.
Wizard, Electrox, you're both right, I think this rally is going to hold a couple days. Look at EURUSD 15 min. It's got an inverted cup and handle and I'm thinking 1.2750 for the break and then quite possibly 1.31 before a plunge to the lower 20's. Stocks are going to rally like there's no tomorrow. I'm going long for now but keeping my trigger finger well oiled
I've got no experience here so I'm just speculating, but by my comparison of the S&P 500 and the VIX, it took about 6 months from the market peak until they started selling, so these are people who make decisions slowly.