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Time to buy over sold Gold shares?

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Super Contributor
I absolutely agree - which is why I choose to disregard the item attached above.
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Super Contributor
Now that surely needs common sense to break out amongst the naked apes - the next ice age will surely come sooner.
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Super Contributor
The guy's posts is as simple as they get. Gold still in a major bull trend, hence long term buy signal and on a short term sell signal. You went long on a short term sell signal. What more do you want ?
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Super Contributor
Oh rubbish. The major trend goes back to $1066. There are umpteen potential "short term setups" between here and there. Who cares. We are on a major support level every $50 or so dollars. Gold "GAPS" more than that. AND the gold SHARES move at a leveraged rate - nobody can trade that well. You have to take a view (combined with attempted trades) when you trade gold - or rather trade something else.
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Super Contributor
So were these 10000 GFI's an attempted trade ? What was your setup ? This sounded more like a gut feel trade than anything else, cause everything related to gold says wait for the next set-up. That includes gold shares.
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Super Contributor
I never trade shares that I would not be prepared to own for the long haul. I do not claim to be a great "trader." Certainly not in the traditional sense. I have known many that have over the years. With hindsight they were all clowns. BUT then again there is trading and then there is trading. I explained my reasoning previously - buy some Goldfields on a decent pullback, trade in and out of these over time and (hopefully) increase the scale of the position. I held a heap of KRUGERS until the crash and have made merry on the market since then; now I wish to reduce my funds applied to gold so I will take my exposure through up to 25 000 GFI. As for "GUT feel" there's no shame in that - provided you have the background (academic/experience/investment results) to justify "going with your gut." GFI might fall further or it might reverse aggresively given events in Europe/middle-east. You have to start buying at some point.
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Super Contributor
If you're up for a bit of good schlok, read Malcolm Gladwell "Blink" regarding the value of "Gut feelings."
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Super Contributor
I don't underestimate the value of gut feel, but I can also tell you that gut feel won't be consistent and will be riddled with emotion (except if youÂ’re uber experienced). This pushes up the risk considerably in my books.
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Super Contributor
AND yet - at the end of the day - I can tell you this from experience - all of the figures in the world don't help - the market is an insane place. It is your "gut" that will make you rich. That is why some make fortunes while others lose them; AND all with access to the same data. Make no mistake - some of those that get wiped out are cleverer than any of us. They divine far more meaning from the data sets presented than you and I, but still...
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Not applicable
The safe trade with gold shares is to short the rallies - has been that way for years
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Super Contributor
Here's an exercise (and a reason I hate trading.) Let's look at gold (and GFI for the heck of it.) GFI is about the most "oversold" it has been in 20 years. Gold well - all this talk of short-term setups... where would this be? at 1500/1517/1600/1617/1635/1650? I don't know. Gold doesn't form a base - it just reverses! - I want to take some GFI - first entry at R105ish then some more at 101ish/96ish/92ish??
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Super Contributor
Of course one could just give gold a wide ebrth. Finish and klaar.
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Not applicable
cost averaging huh - I have never believed in this concept, it is re-inforcing failure. My approach is to keep adding to trending stocks, buy buying in the pullbacks. So I would be looking to add to my winners right now - Rolfes is looking like a solid entry point for me, and ASR also showing relative strength. I am also 10% up on my BSR exposure, so since it is still has relative strength, it is worth toping up on, leaving me with 0 exposure if it pulls back
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Super Contributor
Sort of. Difference is in approach. I have committed to buying a cyclical share on signs of weakness. I accept that it is not possible to guage a real bottom. So the next best thing is to buy in over time. It's no good waiting for a bounce. By then it would be too late. So ... just wear your strongest stomach and enjoy the ride?
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Super Contributor
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Super Contributor
Sure. Goes to your motive for buying in the first place at end of the day.
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Super Contributor
KWAGGA - and please understand, while I tend to be blunt sometimes, I am really not looking to brush anyone the wrong but in summation: The economic figures we are getting are ordinary, even disappointing. There is trouble everywhere. They blame capitalism but it is socialism that is causing most of this. In my view capitalism has proven remarkably resilient in the face of this socialist onslaught. We have long ago lost access to the ultimate tool in our Keynsian toolkit: interest rates. From a fundamental point of view I am quite happy to allocate what amounts to a tiny percentage of my portfolio to a position leveraged to gold at this point. I have resisted doing this to date because I felt there would be outsize returns to be had elsewhere due to QE. That seemed to work out quite well BUT now I think it is time to start buying. Of course I would like to pick the botom and pay less but in the long-run - I really don't care.
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Super Contributor
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Super Contributor
his last chart with a long-term buy recommendation looks like a head and shoulders with a broken neck-line.
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Super Contributor
Teddy Bear discard? These toys will surely be of everlasting value to the ongoing proliferate of future naked apes, but still not yet recommended as profitably securitisable? What can u do with a Teddy Bear? It has no industrial purpose, nothing but a bit of stuffing to support it! Maybe the initial ETF will be oversubscribed, unless Teddy Bears become threatening to Uncle Keynes and his tree investments.
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